国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：能源化工-20250929

Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not explicitly mention overall industry investment ratings but provides trend intensities for each commodity, which can be used as a reference for investment ratings: - Weak or Bearish: Synthetic rubber, rubber,纯碱, with trend intensities of -1 [17][11][64] - Neutral: PX, PTA, MEG, LLDPE, PP,烧碱,甲醇,尿素,苯乙烯, LPG,丙烯, PVC, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil,集运指数（欧线）, with trend intensities of 0 [7][8][9][33][37][43][56][59][60][71][75][77][79] - Bullish: Glass, with a trend intensity of 1 [51] Report's Core View The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various energy - chemical commodities, including their current market conditions, supply - demand situations, and future trends. Most commodities are expected to show different degrees of price fluctuations in the short - to - medium term, affected by factors such as supply - demand balance, cost support, and policy changes. Traders are advised to pay attention to position management before the National Day holiday [2]. Summary by Commodity PX, PTA, MEG - PX: Unilateral trend may remain weak, with 1 - 5 reverse spread. PXN should take profit. Weak demand and high inventory pressure during the National Day holiday limit upward drive. Domestic PX开工率 is 86.7% (+0.4%), and Asian PX开工率 is 78% (-0.2%) [7]. - PTA: Unilateral trend may remain weak, with 1 - 5 reverse spread. Rebound in PTA processing fees on 01/05 contracts should be shorted. Demand pressure is high, and supply - demand imbalance persists. PTA负荷 is 76.8% (-) [8]. - MEG: Unilateral trend may remain weak, with 1 - 5 reverse spread. Supply pressure eases marginally with upcoming maintenance plans. Polyester开工率 is 90.3% (-1.3%), and post - holiday inventory pressure may increase [9]. Rubber - Market Situation: The market is in a weak - oscillating state. Futures prices have declined, and trading volume has increased. Multiple tire raw material prices have dropped, reducing tire production costs [10][11][13]. Synthetic Rubber - Market Situation: It is in a weak operation. High supply pressure and inventory accumulation lead to downward pressure on prices. However, the decline rate may slow down due to valuation factors [17]. Asphalt - Market Situation: Cost support exists, but factory inventories continue to accumulate. Production has increased, and different regions show different inventory trends. The market may follow the oil price in a range - bound oscillation [18][30]. LLDPE - Market Situation: In the short term, it is relatively strong, and in the medium term, it may oscillate. Cost support is strong, demand from the agricultural film industry is improving, and inventory pressure is low [32]. PP - Market Situation: It is expected to be in an oscillating market. Short - term demand has improved, cost support is strong, and supply - side low - profit factors limit price fluctuations [36]. Caustic Soda - Market Situation: It is suppressed by weak reality but strongly supported by cost. The market is in a wide - range oscillation, with multiple factors such as supply - demand, export, and cost in play [41]. Pulp - Market Situation: It is in a weak - oscillating state. The import market shows a differentiation pattern of weak coniferous pulp and strong broad - leaf pulp, affected by supply - demand and cost factors [44][48]. Glass - Market Situation: The price of the original sheet is stable. The market price fluctuates, and the trading atmosphere varies by region. Some downstream factories have orders before the holiday, but overall, the market is affected by factors such as price and demand [51]. Methanol - Market Situation: It is expected to oscillate in the short term. High inventory pressure restricts the upward space, while policy expectations provide support [55]. Urea - Market Situation: It will oscillate before the National Day and trend weakly in the medium term. Short - term price stability is due to pre - holiday order collection, while long - term pressure comes from weak domestic demand [58][59]. Styrene - Market Situation: Short - term empty orders should be closed before the National Day. High inventory problems persist, but low - valuation speculation may occur [61]. Soda Ash - Market Situation: The spot market changes little. Supply remains high, and downstream demand is weak. The market is expected to adjust weakly and stably [64]. LPG and Propylene - LPG: It has strong short - term support, and attention should be paid to cost changes [67]. - Propylene: It runs weakly in the short term, affected by factors such as supply - demand and price differentials [68]. PVC - Market Situation: It oscillates at a low level. Although there is support from anti - deflation and anti - involution factors, high - inventory and weak - demand fundamentals persist [74]. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Fuel Oil: Its strong trend continues, and it is easy to rise and difficult to fall in the short term [77]. - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: It oscillates strongly, and the price differential between high - and low - sulfur fuels in the overseas spot market narrows slightly [77]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - Market Situation: It is in an oscillating market, and attention should be paid to the emotional impact of price increase announcements. Freight rates have declined, and the market is affected by factors such as supply - demand and exchange rates [79].