Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Fundamentally, the mainstream transaction price of Guinea's bulk ore decreased by $0.7 per dry ton to $74.2 per dry ton week - on - week. The alumina operating capacity increased by 600,000 tons to 98.55 million tons, and the national alumina inventory increased by 78,000 tons to 3.797 million tons. The electrolytic aluminum operating capacity increased steadily by 10,000 tons to 44.439 million tons. The domestic downstream aluminum processing leading enterprises' operating rate rose by 0.8% to 63%. The aluminum ingot social inventory decreased significantly, and the orders of large recycled cast aluminum alloy enterprises increased steadily. Macroscopically, the Fed cut interest rates as expected, and there is still room for reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts in China. It is recommended to go long on dips and consider the arbitrage strategy of going long on AD and short on AL [4]. - For strategies, it is recommended to wait and see for alumina, go long on dips for Shanghai aluminum, and go long on dips or adopt the strategy of going long on AD and short on AL for cast aluminum alloy [5]. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Macro Economic Indicators - The report presents graphs of the US Treasury yield curve (10 - year and 2 - year), the US dollar index, the US 10 - year Treasury yield, real yield, inflation expectation, and the exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB [7][8]. 2. Bauxite - The supply of domestic bauxite is tightening, and the prices in Shanxi and Henan are stable. Due to strengthened safety production supervision, environmental inspections, and the rainy season, bauxite mining activities are restricted. Since mid - August, alumina plants have increasingly used imported ore. - The mainstream transaction price of Guinea's bulk ore decreased by $0.7 per dry ton to $74.2 per dry ton week - on - week. The long - term order quotes of large Guinean mining enterprises in the fourth quarter were slightly adjusted, with the FOB price reduced by $1 per dry ton compared to the third quarter. The estimated CIF price is around $73 per dry ton [11]. 3. Alumina - As of last Friday, the alumina's built - in capacity remained unchanged at 114.62 million tons week - on - week, the operating capacity increased by 600,000 tons to 98.55 million tons, and the operating rate was 85.9%. - The weighted price of domestic alumina spot was 2,963 yuan per ton, a week - on - week decrease of 47.2 yuan per ton. - The national alumina inventory was 3.797 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 78,000 tons. Newly put - into - production capacities in Shandong, Guangxi, and the north are gradually reaching stable production. Some southern enterprises have completed maintenance, and a Henan enterprise's partial roasting furnace will resume normal operation on October 5 [14]. 4. Electrolytic Aluminum - As of last Friday, the built - in capacity of electrolytic aluminum remained unchanged at 45.232 million tons week - on - week, and the operating capacity increased by 10,000 tons to 44.439 million tons. The remaining capacity of Baise Yinhai's technological transformation project continued to resume production [21]. 5. Inventory - The report shows the historical inventory data of aluminum rods, aluminum ingots, SHFE aluminum futures, and LME aluminum from 2021 to 2025 [28][29][30][31]. 6. Cast Aluminum Alloy - The operating rate of leading recycled aluminum alloy enterprises increased by 0.7% to 56.6% week - on - week. - Four ministries and commissions jointly issued a notice to clean up local governments' illegal tax rebate policies. - The orders of large recycled aluminum enterprises increased steadily, driving up the operating rate. Typhoons affected production and transportation, but they have gradually returned to normal. During the National Day holiday, the production arrangements of the recycled aluminum industry are diversified, and the overall operating rate is expected to decline [34]. 7. Downstream Operating Rate - The operating rate of domestic leading downstream aluminum processing enterprises increased by 0.8% to 63% week - on - week [42]. - Aluminum profiles: The operating rate of leading aluminum profile enterprises remained stable at 54.6% week - on - week. The orders of photovoltaic profile enterprises are limited to the end of September, and the orders of automotive profile enterprises are improving, but the processing fees are decreasing. The construction profile market is sluggish [47]. - Aluminum strips: The operating rate of leading aluminum strip enterprises increased by 0.8% to 69% week - on - week. Some enterprises increased production after the aluminum price bottomed out. Typhoons affected production in the Pearl River Delta, but production has resumed. Leading enterprises will maintain normal production during the National Day, while small and medium - sized enterprises will slow down [47]. - Aluminum cables: The operating rate of domestic leading cable enterprises increased by 1.8% to 67% week - on - week. The State Grid's tender for 130,000 tons of aluminum conductors has been launched, and the orders for the fourth quarter and next year are guaranteed. Leading enterprises are stocking up before the National Day, mainly for rigid demand [52]. - Primary aluminum alloy: The operating rate of leading primary aluminum alloy enterprises increased by 1% to 58.4% week - on - week. Some enterprises increased inventory after the aluminum price bottomed out. Most enterprises will maintain normal production during the National Day, but the production rhythm may slow down slightly [52].
铝产业链周报-20250929
Chang Jiang Qi Huo·2025-09-29 03:18