缺乏驱动长假临近，盘面或将偏弱震荡

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The natural rubber futures market is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend in the short - term. The macro - impact has weakened, the supply - side support has diminished, the demand is unable to strongly drive prices up, and the pre - holiday capital risk - aversion sentiment is increasing [8][89][90]. 3. Summary by Directory Price Analysis (1) Futures Price - Last week, the price of the natural rubber main contract RU2601 fluctuated between 15,280 - 15,725 yuan/ton, with a slight overall decline. As of September 26, 2025, it closed at 15,470 yuan/ton, down 65 points or 0.42% for the week [15]. (2) Spot Price - As of September 26, 2025, the spot price of Yunnan state - owned whole latex (SCRWF) was 14,700 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week; the spot price of Thai smoked sheet (RSS3) was 19,650 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous week; the spot price of Vietnamese 3L (SVR3L) was 15,200 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous week. The Qingdao natural rubber arrival price was 2,160 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous week [20][22]. (3) Basis and Spread - The basis between the Shanghai Yunnan state - owned whole latex (SCRWF) spot price and the natural rubber main contract futures price shrank slightly last week. As of September 26, 2025, the basis was - 770 yuan/ton, 65 yuan/ton smaller than the previous week. The domestic price of natural rubber decreased slightly last week, while the overseas price increased slightly [26][29]. Important Market Information - The Fed Chairman Powell said the stock price is overvalued, but it's not a high - risk time for financial stability. The US government implemented a trade agreement with the EU, imposing a 15% tariff on EU - imported cars and auto products. Some Fed officials suggested further interest - rate cuts. US economic data showed inflation, consumption, and employment trends. The OECD raised the global economic growth forecast for 2025. China's industrial enterprise profits increased in August, and the auto industry had good production and sales performance [30][31][33]. Supply - side Situation - As of July 31, 2025, the production of natural rubber in Vietnam increased significantly, while that in Indonesia and Thailand increased slightly, and that in China, Malaysia, and India decreased slightly. The total production of major natural rubber - producing countries in July 2025 was 927,000 tons, an increase of 91,600 tons or 10.96% from the previous month. As of August 31, 2025, China's monthly synthetic rubber production was 740,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.4%, and the cumulative production was 5.848 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.9%. As of July 31, 2025, China's imports of new pneumatic rubber tires were 10,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.64% [40][44][48]. Demand - side Situation - As of September 25, 2025, the开工 rate of semi - steel tire enterprises was 73.58%, down 0.08% from the previous week, and that of all - steel tire enterprises was 65.72%, up 0.06% from the previous week. As of August 31, 2025, China's monthly auto production was 2.815 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 13% and a month - on - month increase of 8.7%; monthly auto sales were 2.857 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 16.4% and a month - on - month increase of 10.1%. China's monthly heavy - truck sales were 91,619 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 46.71% and a month - on - month increase of 7.93%. China's monthly tire outer - tube production was 102.954 million pieces, a year - on - year increase of 1.5%. China's exports of new pneumatic rubber tires were 63.01 million pieces, a month - on - month decrease of 5.46% [54][58][61]. Inventory - side Situation - As of September 26, 2025, the natural rubber futures inventory on the SHFE was 149,420 tons, down 5,500 tons from the previous week. As of September 21, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 111,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1,000 tons or 0.09%. The total inventory in Qingdao was 461,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3,600 tons or 0.76% [85]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply: The global natural rubber production areas are in the peak season. Weather has affected tapping, but the supply is expected to increase as the weather improves. In August 2025, China's natural rubber imports increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. - Demand: The tire enterprise start - up rate changed little last week. The holiday will drag down the capacity utilization rate. The auto market had good production and sales in August, and tire exports increased in the first eight months. - Inventory: The SHFE inventory decreased significantly last week, and the social and Qingdao total inventories decreased slightly [86]. 后市展望 (Outlook for the Future) - The domestic natural rubber futures main contract price fluctuated slightly last week. Macro - factors show that the Fed's interest - rate cut is uncertain, and China's industrial enterprise profits increased in August. Fundamentally, supply support is weakening, demand is average, and the state - reserve rubber auction volume was large last Thursday. It is expected that the market will maintain a weak and volatile trend in the short - term, and attention should be paid to weather, demand, zero - tariff policy, and Sino - US tariff changes [87][88][89]. View and Operation Strategy - This week's view: It is expected that the natural rubber futures main contract will maintain a weak and volatile trend in the short - term. - Operation strategy: For single - side trading, it is recommended to wait and see, and aggressive investors can consider short - selling on rallies; for arbitrage and options, it is recommended to wait and see [90][91].