南华期货甲醇产业周报：节前观望-20250929

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The coal end has weakened slightly, with weekend pithead coal prices falling. Iranian shipments remain fast, with around 870,000 tons shipped so far. Port inventory accumulation has been limited this week due to weather - delayed unloading, but significant accumulation is expected later. For the 01 contract, supply is clear. Although downstream profits have improved, the port inventory issue is difficult to resolve. The reverse flow window between the port and the inland remains open, and inland MTO continues to purchase externally, providing support. Non - Iranian Malaysian plants have faced setbacks in resuming operations and are further delayed, with non - Iranian imports expected to be slightly reduced to 550,000 - 600,000 tons this month, but a clear reduction time is hard to determine. It is not recommended to operate before the National Day, and the short - put option can be held [2]. - The short - term trend of methanol is range - bound, with the 2601 contract expected to operate in the range of 2330 - 2380. The previous short - put option on the 2601 contract should continue to be held [13]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - Coal prices at the pithead have declined, and Iranian methanol shipments are rapid. Port inventory will likely increase significantly later. The 01 contract has supply clarity, but port inventory is a problem. Inland support exists due to external purchases by MTO. Non - Iranian imports may be slightly reduced [2]. 1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - Base - Spread Strategy: The price of the methanol 01 contract has risen to 2370, while the inland market has weakened. The large premium structure of the 01 contract remains unresolved, and the outcome is yet to be determined [10]. - Calendar - Spread Strategy: As Iranian shipments have accelerated, the market doubts whether early gas restrictions will occur this year. Methanol prices have been declining, and the 1 - 5 spread has been in a reverse - carry situation [7][10]. 1.3 Methanol Inland Inventory Situation - Multiple charts show the seasonal trends of methanol inland inventory, including in the Northwest, at methanol plants in the south and north lines, and the national factory inventory, net factory inventory, and northwest pending shipments [18][20]. 1.4 Methanol Port Inventory Situation - Various charts display the seasonal trends of methanol port inventory in different regions of China, such as Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Guangdong, Fujian, and Guangxi, as well as the inventory in Taicang and the port arrival volume in different areas [22][38][43] Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - Price Forecast: The price range of methanol is predicted to be 2200 - 2500, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 20.01% and a historical percentile of 51.2% over three years [51]. - Hedging Strategy: Different hedging strategies are recommended for inventory management and procurement management, including shorting futures, buying put options, and selling call options [51]. - Positive Information: Seven departments including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued a notice to prevent over - capacity risks in the coal - to - methanol industry. The second - phase 450,000 - ton MTO of Lianhong had its mid - construction handover this week, with the earliest投料 in late November. Iranian plant operating rates have declined to around 74% [55][56]. - Negative Information: Iran has shipped 700,000 tons of methanol [57]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - Not provided in the document Chapter 3: Disk Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - The domestic methanol market has been oscillating this week, with the inland production area slightly stronger than the sales area. The port market followed the futures, showing a weak oscillation and then a small rebound. The 1 - 5 spread weakened due to high - speed Iranian shipments but rebounded on Friday due to an unexpected Iranian plant shutdown [59][62]. Chapter 4: Price and Profit Analysis 4.1 Upstream and Downstream Price Tracking in the Industry Chain - Charts show the price trends of coal at the Ordos pithead and Qinhuangdao Port, as well as the mainstream prices of methanol in the Lunan market and Taicang, and the number of warehouse receipts [65][66][69]. 4.2 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industry Chain - Multiple charts display the profit and cost trends of different methanol production methods, such as coal - to - methanol in Shandong, coke - oven gas - to - methanol, and natural - gas - to - methanol in different regions, as well as the profits of downstream products like MTO, acetic acid, and MTBE [77][78][117]. 4.3 Upstream and Downstream Production and Start - up Rate Tracking in the Industry Chain - Charts show the production and start - up rate trends of different methanol production methods and downstream products, including coal - single - methanol, coke - oven gas - to - methanol, and MTO [93][94][101]. 4.4 Import - Export Price and Profit Tracking - Charts present the seasonal trends of methanol imports from different countries, the outer - market structure of methanol, and the import profit of Iranian methanol [128]. 4.5 Overseas Start - up Tracking - Charts show the capacity utilization rate, production, and start - up rate of overseas methanol plants, including those in Iran and non - Iranian regions [135][137][139]. Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction - A supply - demand balance sheet shows the production, consumption, and inventory data of methanol from January to December 2025 [143]. 5.2 Supply - Side and Deduction - This week, some domestic methanol plants have restarted, while others have had maintenance or breakdowns. For example, Shandong Yankuang Guohong has restarted with double furnaces, and some plants in the Southwest and Northwest have restarted or had short - term shutdowns [144]. 5.3 Demand - Side and Deduction - Downstream MTO plants such as Xingxing and Chengzhi have resumed or increased production. New MTO projects like the second - phase of Lianhong are advancing, and inland pre - holiday stocking is active [145].