Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View This week, the futures prices of oils and fats rebounded after hitting bottom. The short - term fluctuations in Argentina's tariff policy caused significant global oil and fat price volatility. The EU - Indonesia trade agreement is beneficial for Indonesian palm oil exports, and the decline in Malaysian palm oil production and improvement in exports have strengthened the palm oil industry chain. The rapeseed oil futures prices are greatly affected by market sentiment before the Sino - Canadian trade relationship is clear. As the holiday approaches, market funds are risk - averse, and the oil and fat market should be treated as having wide - range fluctuations [8][32]. 3. Section Summaries 3.1 Abstract - This week, the futures price of soybean oil Y2601 contract fell 1.99% to 8162 yuan/ton, palm oil P2601 contract fell 0.85% to 9236 yuan/ton, and rapeseed oil OI2601 contract rose 0.93% to 10162 yuan/ton [5]. - In terms of palm oil, from September 1 - 25, Malaysia's palm oil exports increased by 12.9% (ITS data) and 11.3% (Amspec data) compared to the same period last month, and palm oil prices fell 0.63%. In terms of soybean oil, Argentina adjusted its tariff policy, first canceling and then re - imposing export taxes on agricultural products, and US soybeans fell 1.17% this week [7]. 3.2 Spot Analysis - As of September 26, 2025, the spot price of Grade 4 soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 8440 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it was at an average level compared to the past 5 years [9]. - The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 9230 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it was at a relatively high level compared to the past 5 years [10]. - The spot price of Grade 4 rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 10400 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it was at an average level compared to the past 5 years [12]. 3.3 Other Data - As of September 19, 2025, the national soybean oil inventory increased by 1.90 million tons to 147.40 million tons. On September 24, the national palm oil commercial inventory decreased by 4.90 million tons to 64.60 million tons [16]. - As of September 26, 2025, the port's imported soybean inventory was 6718500 tons [20]. - As of September 26, 2025, the basis of Grade 4 soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 278 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it was at a relatively low level compared to the past 5 years [21]. - The basis of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was - 6 yuan/ton, up 46 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it was at a relatively low level compared to the past 5 years [24]. - The basis of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 238 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it was at a relatively low level compared to the past 5 years [26]. 3.4 Comprehensive Analysis - This week, the futures prices of oils and fats rebounded after hitting bottom. The short - term change in Argentina's tariff policy led to significant global oil and fat price fluctuations. The EU - Indonesia trade agreement is conducive to Indonesian palm oil exports, and the decline in Malaysian palm oil production and improvement in exports have strengthened the palm oil industry chain. The rapeseed oil futures prices are greatly affected by market sentiment before the Sino - Canadian trade relationship is clear. As the holiday approaches, market funds are risk - averse, and the oil and fat market should be treated as having wide - range fluctuations [32].
消息反复，油脂探底回升
Hua Long Qi Huo·2025-09-29 03:21