国庆节前黑色观点-20250929

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term pattern of weak industry and strong macro remains unchanged in the black industry before the National Day. The industry contradictions are not prominent, and it is recommended to wait and see or conduct short - term trading. The key lies in the steel demand after the festival to support the current high pig iron production [1][4]. - The glass market is affected by factors such as price increases of major manufacturers and downstream replenishment. Although there is a pressure range above the glass 2601 contract, it is still regarded as bullish in the near future [2][4]. - The supply - demand pattern of coking coal and coke has slightly weakened, and the key after the festival is also the steel demand and the resumption progress of coking coal production [4]. Summary by Related Categories Steel - Last Friday, the rebar futures price dropped significantly. The spot price in Hangzhou dropped to 3300 yuan/ton, and the 01 contract basis is 201. The rebar futures price has fallen below the cost of electric furnace valley electricity and long - process, with low static valuation. The macro policy expectations are rising, but the industrial demand is still weak year - on - year. Focus on the demand in October. The raw material supply - demand has weakened, and coking coal and coke have started to accumulate inventory. The RB2601 has support at 3000 - 3100 [1]. Iron Ore - Recently, the profitability of steel mills has slowly declined but is still at a relatively high level in recent years. The daily average pig iron output last week was 242.36 (+1.34) million tons. It is difficult to see short - term negative feedback. The iron ore has a high valuation in the black system, and the rebar - iron ore ratio is at a historically low level. Before the festival, it follows the steel price trend, and the key after the festival is the steel demand [1]. Glass - Last week, the glass futures first fell and then rose. The spot prices of some major glass manufacturers increased by 100 yuan/ton, and other enterprises followed. The supply side had no changes in production lines, and the daily melting volume remained the same. The national factory inventory continued to decline due to downstream replenishment and futures - cash traders' purchases. The cost of coal - gas has increased, but the profits of spot and petroleum coke have risen, while natural gas is still in a loss state. The processing plants are mainly waiting and seeing, only maintaining rigid demand procurement and a small amount of pre - festival stocking [2]. Soda Ash - The inventory of soda ash plants has decreased significantly due to the accelerated pick - up of goods by futures - cash traders. However, considering the second - phase project of Yuanxing, the output is still expected to increase, and it is expected to fluctuate [4]. Coal and Coke - Last week, the coking coal output continued to rise, with the daily average output of 194 million tons in 523 coking coal mines across the country. Before the festival, the downstream replenished stocks, the coal mine inventory decreased, and the inventory of coal washing plants and coking plants increased, with a large increase in total inventory. The second round of coke price cuts was implemented, the coke output decreased slightly last week, and the total inventory continued to accumulate. The short - term supply - demand pattern of coking coal and coke has slightly weakened [4].