政府债周报：下周新增债披露发行593亿-20250929

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - From September 29 to October 5, local bonds are expected to be issued at 10.7153 billion yuan, including 5.9341 billion yuan in new bonds (992 million yuan in new general bonds and 4.9421 billion yuan in new special bonds) and 4.7811 billion yuan in refinancing bonds (3.5178 billion yuan in refinancing general bonds and 1.2633 billion yuan in refinancing special bonds) [2][4] - From September 22 to September 28, local bonds were actually issued at 19.6051 billion yuan, including 15.5194 billion yuan in new bonds (560.4 million yuan in new general bonds and 14.959 billion yuan in new special bonds) and 4.0857 billion yuan in refinancing bonds (582.7 million yuan in refinancing general bonds and 3.503 billion yuan in refinancing special bonds) [2][5] - As of September 28, 2025, the total disclosed amount of special new special bonds in 2025 is 120.1225 billion yuan, and since 2023, the total disclosed amount is 238.9088 billion yuan. The top three regions in terms of disclosed scale are Jiangsu (23.4035 billion yuan), Xinjiang (13.117 billion yuan), and Hubei (12.8769 billion yuan). In 2025, the top three provinces or municipalities directly under the central government in terms of disclosed scale are Jiangsu (11.89 billion yuan), Guangdong (10.2748 billion yuan), and Yunnan (7.2997 billion yuan) [6] Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Local Bond Actual Issuance and Forecast Issuance - Actual Issuance and Pre - issuance Disclosure: From September 22 to September 28, the net supply of local bonds was 12.25 billion yuan; from September 29 to October 5, the forecast net supply of local bonds is 9.81 billion yuan [10][12][15] - Comparison of Planned and Actual Issuance: The planned and actual issuance of local bonds in August and September are presented through charts, showing the differences between planned and actual issuance amounts of new bonds, new general bonds, new special bonds, and refinancing bonds [10][14][16] Local Bond Net Supply - New Bond Issuance Progress: As of September 28, the issuance progress of new general bonds is 82.29%, and that of new special bonds is 83.73% [10][25] - Refinancing Bond Net Supply: The chart shows the cumulative scale of refinancing bonds minus local bond maturities as of September 28 [10][25] Special Bond Issuance Details - Special Refinancing Bond Issuance Statistics: The chart shows the issuance amounts of special refinancing bonds in different rounds in various regions as of September 28, including five rounds and two batches in the fifth round. The statistical scope includes both issued and disclosed - but - not - issued bonds [28][29][30] - Special New Special Bond Issuance Statistics: As of September 28, the statistical situation of special new special bonds in different regions from 2023 to 2025 is presented, and the statistical scope includes both issued and disclosed - but - not - issued bonds [31][32][33] Local Bond Investment and Trading - Primary - Secondary Spread: The charts show the primary - secondary spreads of local bonds and the secondary spreads by region, including the changes from September 19 to September 26 [35][36][37] - New Special Bond Investment Direction: The chart shows the investment direction of new special bonds, and the latest monthly statistics only consider the investment directions of issued new bonds [38]