铂族金属周报：租赁利率再起，铂价表现强势-20250929

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The primary driver of the current rise in platinum - group metal prices is the expectation of the Fed's loose monetary policy. Although Fed Chairman Powell's stance in this month's interest - rate meeting was more hawkish than market expectations, the new Fed chair candidates in 2026 are in favor of further easing. The Fed is likely to implement a significantly loose monetary policy after the new chair takes office in 2026. This week, the prices of NYMEX platinum and palladium main contracts increased. The inventory of platinum - group metals in the US continues to accumulate, and the one - month implied lease rate of platinum has rebounded. The expectation of Fed rate cuts will continue to drive the prices of platinum - group metals higher, and a long - position strategy is still recommended [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Market Outlook - Platinum Key Data: The closing price of the NYMEX platinum active contract rose 12.04% to $1,589.80 per ounce, the five - day average trading volume increased 22.61%, the main - contract open interest decreased 72.34%, the inventory rose 3.22% to 18.95 tons, the CFTC managed - fund net long position increased by 3,638 lots to 18,285 lots, the CFTC commercial net short position increased by 1,178 lots to 26,284 lots, the platinum ETF holdings increased 0.18% to 74.69 tons, and the spread between London platinum spot and NYMEX platinum settlement price was - $30.00 per ounce [9]. - Palladium Key Data: The closing price of the NYMEX palladium active contract rose 11.08% to $1,303.50 per ounce, the five - day average trading volume increased 11.76%, the main - contract open interest increased 4.89%, the inventory rose 8.49% to 5.08 tons, the CFTC managed - fund net short position decreased by 15 lots to 5,176 lots, the CFTC commercial net short position increased by 216 lots to 2,293 lots, the palladium ETF holdings increased 0.11% to 14.15 tons, and the spread between London palladium spot and NYMEX palladium settlement price was - $36.10 per ounce [9]. - Technical Analysis: The NYMEX platinum main - contract price broke through after seven consecutive weekly positive lines, and it is expected to remain strong, with short - term attention on the resistance level at $1,744.5 per ounce. The NYMEX palladium main - contract price stabilized at the $1,100 per ounce trend - line and showed a large positive line this week. Although the technical chart is weaker than platinum, the price still has room to strengthen, with short - term attention on the resistance level at $1,532 per ounce [12][15]. 3.2. Market Review - Platinum Price: The NYMEX platinum main - contract price rose 12.04% to $1,589.8 per ounce, and the open interest decreased by 2,311 lots to 97,900 lots [21]. - Palladium Price: The NYMEX palladium main - contract price rose 11.08% to $1,303.5 per ounce, and the open interest increased by 422 lots to 20,300 lots [24]. - Domestic Platinum Price and Spread: As of September 26, the spot price of platinum on the Shanghai Gold Exchange was 366.55 yuan per gram [27]. - Lease Rate: As of September 26, the one - month implied lease rate of platinum rose to 17.47%, and that of palladium was 4.48% [31]. - Platinum CFTC Net Position: As of the latest reporting period on September 23, the net long position of NYMEX platinum managed funds increased by 3,638 lots to 18,285 lots [34]. - Palladium CFTC Net Position: As of the latest reporting period on September 23, the net short position of NYMEX palladium managed funds was 5,176 lots [37]. - CFTC Platinum and Palladium Commercial Net Short Position: Relevant data on commercial net short positions are presented in the report [38]. - Price Ratio: The report shows the platinum - palladium and platinum - silver price ratios [41]. 3.3. Inventory and ETF Holdings Changes - Platinum ETF Holdings: As of September 26, the total holdings of platinum ETFs were 74.69 tons [48]. - Palladium ETF Holdings: As of September 26, the total holdings of palladium ETFs were 14.15 tons [51]. - Platinum Inventory: This week, the CME platinum inventory increased by 591.97 kilograms to 18.95 tons [55]. - Palladium Inventory: As of September 26, the CME palladium inventory was 5,078.54 kilograms, an increase of 397.47 kilograms this week [60]. 3.4. Supply and Demand - Platinum Mine Supply: The forecast of the top 15 platinum mines shows that the platinum production in the fourth quarter of 2025 will reach 33.18 tons, and the annual production in 2025 will be 127.47 tons, a 1.9% decrease from 2024, indicating a contraction in platinum mine supply [66]. - Palladium Mine Supply: The production of the top 15 palladium mines in the fourth quarter of 2025 will be 41.36 tons. In 2025, the production of some mines will decline, while that of Impala in South Africa will increase by 12%. Overall, the annual production of the top 15 mines will decline by 0.86% to 165.78 tons [69]. - China's Platinum Imports: China's platinum imports in August were 8.21 tons, showing a rebound from July [72]. - China's Palladium Imports: China's palladium imports in August were 2.06 tons, showing a decline from July [75]. - Automobile Production: The report presents data on automobile production in China, Japan, Germany, and the US, which are related to the demand for platinum - group metals [76][79][81]. - Global Supply - Demand Balance: The global platinum supply - demand balance shows a supply shortage in 2025, and the global palladium supply - demand balance shows a slight supply surplus in 2025 [85][86]. 3.5. Monthly Spread and Cross - Market Spread - NYMEX Platinum Monthly Spread: The report shows data on the monthly spreads of NYMEX platinum [89]. - NYMEX Palladium Monthly Spread: The report shows data on the monthly spreads of NYMEX palladium [97]. - London Spot and NYMEX Spread: The report shows the spreads between London spot platinum/palladium prices and NYMEX platinum/palladium prices [104].