PVC周报：估值下降至低位，过剩格局难以扭转-20250929

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The domestic PVC market is currently in a situation of strong supply and weak demand. The export outlook is weakening, and domestic demand is flat, making it difficult to reverse the pattern of oversupply. The fundamentals are poor, and the short - term valuation has declined to a low level with limited downward space in the short term. In the medium term, attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities on rallies [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Cost and Profit: The price of Wuhai calcium carbide is 2,600 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week; the price of Shandong calcium carbide is 2,890 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton week - on - week; the price of medium - grade semi - coke in Shaanxi is 730 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton week - on - week. The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali integration continues to decline, while the profit of ethylene - based production shows a slight improvement, and the current valuation is moderately low [11]. - Supply: The PVC capacity utilization rate is 79%, up 2% month - on - month. Among them, the calcium carbide method is 79.3%, up 2.4% month - on - month; the ethylene method is 78.1%, up 1% month - on - month. The supply load increased last week, mainly due to the increased loads of Haohua, Jinchuan, Zhenyang, and Yinlite. It is expected to further recover next week. Although the overall maintenance volume increased in September, there were multiple new device commissionings, so the supply pressure remains high [11]. - Demand: In terms of exports, the final anti - dumping duty ruling in India has been announced, and China's tax rate is at a significant disadvantage compared to other countries. Once implemented, exports are expected to decline. The operating rates of the three major downstream industries decreased last week. The pipe load is 40.4%, up 1.3% month - on - month; the film load is 63.9%, down 13% month - on - month; the profile load is 38.9%, down 0.5% month - on - month. The overall downstream load is 47.8%, down 1.5% month - on - month, indicating weak overall downstream operations. The pre - sales volume of PVC last week was 759,000 tons, up 3,000 tons month - on - month [11]. - Inventory: Last week, the factory inventory was 318,000 tons, up 12,000 tons month - on - month; the social inventory was 971,000 tons, up 18,000 tons month - on - month; the overall inventory was 1.29 million tons, up 29,000 tons month - on - month; the number of warehouse receipts stabilized. Currently, it is still in the inventory accumulation cycle, with upstream inventory gradually shifting to the mid - stream. Under the pattern of strong supply and weak demand, the inventory accumulation is expected to continue [11]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market No specific analysis text is provided, only multiple charts are presented, including PVC term structure, East China SG - 5 price, spot basis, 1 - 5 spread, active contract positions, trading volume, total positions, and total trading volume [16][23][25]. 3.3 Profit and Inventory No specific analysis text is provided, only multiple charts are presented, including factory inventory, ethylene - based factory inventory, calcium carbide - based factory inventory, social inventory, factory + social inventory, warehouse receipts, Shandong's comprehensive profit of purchasing calcium carbide for chlor - alkali integration, calcium carbide - based PVC profit, ethylene - based PVC profit, and Inner Mongolia calcium carbide profit [30][32][39]. 3.4 Cost Side The cost side shows that calcium carbide prices have stabilized. No specific analysis text is provided, only multiple charts are presented, including Wuhai and Shandong calcium carbide prices, calcium carbide inventory, calcium carbide operating rate, Shaanxi mainstream price of medium - grade semi - coke, Shandong self - pick - up price of 32% liquid caustic soda, Shandong market price of liquid chlorine, and Northeast Asian ethylene CFR spot price [46][47][50]. 3.5 Supply Side In 2025, the PVC capacity expansion is significant, mainly concentrated in the third quarter. The total planned new capacity in 2025 is 2.5 million tons/year, including multiple projects such as Xinpu Chemical, Jintai Chemical, and Wanhua Chemical (Phase II). No specific analysis text is provided, only multiple charts are presented, including historical PVC capacity trends, 2025 PVC new capacity, 2025 PVC production raw material consumption, calcium carbide - based and ethylene - based PVC operating rates, overall PVC operating rate, and weekly PVC output [56][58][60]. 3.6 Demand Side The operating rates of the three major downstream industries of PVC have declined. No specific analysis text is provided, only multiple charts are presented, including downstream PVC operating rates (including profiles, films, and pipes), PVC export volume, PVC exports to India, PVC pre - sales volume, China's housing completion area rolling cumulative year - on - year growth rate, PVC industry chain, and PVC mind map [71][73][75][80][83][85][87][90][93].