Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - Industrial silicon is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with attention paid to whether the supply - demand structure improves after the holiday. If southwest regions cut production during the dry season and downstream demand remains stable, the high - level inventory may decline, and the far - month contract valuation may rise. However, price maintenance requires real - data confirmation. Also, the potential price improvement from the "anti - involution" policy remains uncertain [16]. - Polysilicon prices may experience a short - term phased decline. After a long - term policy narrative, the upward drive is insufficient without unexpected news. If the fourth - quarter production rate remains the same, there will be real - end pressure. Attention should be paid to the maintenance of leading enterprises and policy changes [18]. Summary by Directory 1. Week - ly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation Demand - Polysilicon weekly output was 31,400 tons, a slight increase from the previous week. DMC output was 47,100 tons, a decrease of 1,500 tons from the previous week. From January to August, the cumulative aluminum alloy output was 12.324 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.163 billion tons or 21.29%. From January to August, China's cumulative net export of industrial silicon was 484,700 tons, a year - on - year increase of 21,000 tons or 4.54% [14]. Inventory - Industrial silicon inventory was 695,700 tons, an increase of 3,700 tons from the previous week, remaining at a high level. Factory inventory was 260,000 tons, an increase of 2,400 tons; market inventory was 185,000 tons, unchanged; registered warehouse - receipt inventory was 250,700 tons, an increase of 1,300 tons [14]. Price and Cost - As of September 26, 2025, the spot price of 553 (non - oxygen - passed) industrial silicon in East China was 9,300 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 200 yuan/ton; the spot price of 421 industrial silicon was 9,700 yuan/ton, with a discounted futures price of 8,900 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 100 yuan/ton. The futures main contract (SI2511) closed at 8,960 yuan/ton, a decrease of 345 yuan/ton. The 553 (non - oxygen - passed) had a premium of 340 yuan/ton over the futures main contract, with a basis rate of 3.66%; the 421 had a discount of 60 yuan/ton, with a basis rate of - 0.67%. The average production cost in Xinjiang was 8,404.17 yuan/ton, 9,387.50 yuan/ton in Yunnan, 9,095.24 yuan/ton in Sichuan, and 9,000 yuan/ton in Inner Mongolia [15]. Supply - The weekly output of industrial silicon was 95,600 tons, an increase of 900 tons from the previous week [15]. 2. Spot and Futures Market Industrial Silicon - As of September 26, 2025, the spot price of 553 (non - oxygen - passed) industrial silicon in East China was 9,300 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 200 yuan/ton; the spot price of 421 industrial silicon was 9,700 yuan/ton, with a discounted futures price of 8,900 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 100 yuan/ton. The futures main contract (SI2511) closed at 8,960 yuan/ton, a decrease of 345 yuan/ton. The 553 (non - oxygen - passed) had a premium of 340 yuan/ton over the futures main contract, with a basis rate of 3.66%; the 421 had a discount of 60 yuan/ton, with a basis rate of - 0.67% [23]. Polysilicon - As of September 26, 2025, the average price of N - type polysilicon re - feedstock was 52.55 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.1 yuan/kg; the average price of N - type dense material was 51.05 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.1 yuan/kg. The futures main contract (PS2511) closed at 51,465 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,235 yuan/ton. The basis of the main contract was 1,085 yuan/ton, with a basis rate of 2.06% [26]. 3. Industrial Silicon Total Output - As of September 26, 2025, the weekly output of industrial silicon was 95,600 tons, an increase of 900 tons from the previous week. In August 2025, the output was 370,500 tons, an increase of 49,300 tons from the previous month. From January to August, the cumulative output decreased by 538,600 tons or 17.44% year - on - year [31]. Production in Main Producing Areas - No specific new data other than the total output was provided in the summary part, but figures for Sichuan, Yunnan, Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, and Gansu were presented in the graphs [30][33][35]. Production Cost - As of September 26, 2025, the electricity price and silicon - coal price in main producing areas remained stable. The average production cost in Xinjiang was 8,404.17 yuan/ton, 9,387.50 yuan/ton in Yunnan, 9,095.24 yuan/ton in Sichuan, and 9,000 yuan/ton in Inner Mongolia [45]. Visible Inventory - As of September 26, 2025, the industrial silicon inventory was 695,700 tons, an increase of 3,700 tons from the previous week, remaining at a high level. Factory inventory was 260,000 tons, an increase of 2,400 tons; market inventory was 185,000 tons, unchanged; registered warehouse - receipt inventory was 250,700 tons, an increase of 1,300 tons [48]. 4. Polysilicon Output - As of September 26, 2025, the weekly output of polysilicon was 31,400 tons, a slight increase from the previous week, close to the same period in 2024. In August, the output was 131,700 tons, an increase of 25,400 tons from the previous month. From January to August, the cumulative output was 811,100 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 36.67% [53]. Capacity Utilization and Scheduled Production - The capacity utilization rate in August was 45.78%, an increase of 6.55 percentage points from the previous month. SMM predicted that the output in September would be 126,700 tons, with a decrease in the capacity utilization rate [56]. Inventory - As of September 26, 2025, the factory inventory of polysilicon was 240,900 tons according to Baichuan Yingfu, and 226,000 tons according to SMM [59]. Cost and Profit - As of September 26, 2025, the production cost of polysilicon was 41,543 yuan/ton, and the gross profit was 9,057 yuan/ton, indicating relatively good profitability [62]. Downstream: Silicon Wafers, Battery Cells, and Components - Silicon wafers: The weekly output was 13.78GW, a slight decrease from the previous week. In August, the output was 56.04GW, an increase of 3.29GW from the previous month. From January to August, the cumulative output was 429.12GW, a year - on - year decrease of 8.77%. The inventory was 16.23GW, a slight decrease from the previous week, and the predicted output in September was 57.53GW, a slight increase [65][68]. - Battery cells: In August, the output was 58.27GW, an increase of 0.08GW from the previous month, and the capacity utilization rate was 56.89%, a decrease of 2.17 percentage points from the previous month. From January to August, the cumulative output was 446.87GW, a year - on - year increase of 0.96%. The inventory was 8.11GW, an increase from the previous week, and the predicted output in September was 60.04GW, a slight increase [73][76]. - Components: In August, the output was 49.2GW, an increase of 2.1GW from the previous month, and the capacity utilization rate was 49.09%, an increase of 3.17 percentage points from the previous month. From January to August, the cumulative output was 379.6GW, a year - on - year increase of 1.31%. The inventory was 35.2GW, a slight increase from the previous week, and the predicted output in September was 50.3GW, an increase from August [81][84]. 5. Organic Silicon Output - As of September 26, 2025, the DMC output was 47,100 tons, a decrease of 1,500 tons from the previous week. In August, the output was 219,600 tons, an increase of 13,100 tons from the previous month. From January to August, the cumulative output was 1.653 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 17.58% [91]. Price and Profit - As of September 26, 2025, the average price of organic silicon was 11,050 yuan/ton, an increase of 250 yuan/ton from the previous week. The gross profit of DMC was - 1,921.88 yuan/ton [94]. Inventory - As of September 26, 2025, the DMC inventory was 44,500 tons, a decrease of 1,300 tons from the previous week [98]. 6. Silicon - Aluminum Alloy and Export Aluminum Alloy - As of September 26, 2025, the price of primary aluminum alloy A356 was 21,220 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week; the price of recycled aluminum alloy ADC12 was 20,940 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton from the previous week. From January to August, the cumulative output was 12.324 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.163 billion tons or 21.29%. The capacity utilization rate of primary aluminum alloy was 58.4%, and that of recycled aluminum alloy was 56.6% [103][106]. Export - From January to August, China's cumulative net export of industrial silicon was 484,700 tons, a year - on - year increase of 21,000 tons or 4.54% [109].
工业硅震荡延续，多晶硅现实压力仍存
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2025-09-29 05:07