供应回归，现实依旧偏弱

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The futures market has stabilized at the bottom of the range, with a slight weekly increase, but the spot market continues to decline, the basis weakens, and the 1 - 5 spread fluctuates at a low level. The supply has recovered, but demand lacks drive, and the overall market sentiment remains weak. Prices are expected to remain in a low - level shock in the short term [12]. - Fundamentally, domestic urea plant operating rate has increased, production is at a high level, demand is average, and corporate inventories are rising. The market is currently characterized by low valuation and weak drive, and there is no significant one - sided trend. It is recommended to pay attention to long positions on dips [12]. 3. Summaries According to the Catalog 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Market Review: The futures market stabilized at the bottom of the range, with a slight weekly increase, while the spot market continued to decline, the basis weakened, and the 1 - 5 spread fluctuated at a low level. The supply recovered, but demand lacked drive, and the market sentiment was weak. Prices are expected to remain in a low - level shock in the short term [12]. - Fundamentals - Supply: The domestic urea plant operating rate this week was 85.58%, a 4.36% increase from the previous week. Both coal - based and gas - based operating rates rebounded. Daily production rose to 199,300 tons and will remain high in the short term [12]. - Demand: The spot market weakened further, and profits from all processes fell to low levels. The pre - order days of enterprises were 6.71 days, a 0.53 - day increase from the previous week. The operating rate of compound fertilizers was 35.27%, a 3.36% decrease from the previous week, mainly due to seasonal decline. Agricultural demand is in the off - season, and exports and pre - orders before the festival provide some support [12]. - Valuation: Export profits are high, and the domestic market is relatively undervalued. Urea valuation is low [12]. - Inventory: Corporate inventories were 1.2182 million tons, a 52,900 - ton increase from the previous week, at a high level compared to the same period last year. Port inventories were 496,300 tons, a 52,900 - ton increase from the previous week [12]. - Market Logic: Supply and demand remain weak, the spot market continues to decline, and the current situation is characterized by low valuation and weak supply - demand, with narrowing price fluctuations [12]. - Strategy: Wait and see or look for long - position opportunities on dips [12]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - Futures Contracts: The 09 contract closed at 1,740, down 4 from the previous week; the 01 contract closed at 1,669, up 8; the 05 contract closed at 1,720, down 2 [13]. - Spot Market: Prices in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei all declined, with Shandong and Henan down 10 each, and Hebei down 30 [13]. - Basis and Spreads: The basis weakened, and the 1 - 5 spread fluctuated at a low level [12]. 3.3. Profit and Inventory - Production Profits: Profits from fixed - bed, water - coal slurry, and gas - based production continued to decline [28]. - Inventory - Enterprise Inventory: Corporate inventories were 1.2182 million tons, a 52,900 - ton increase from the previous week, at a high level compared to the same period last year [12]. - Port Inventory: Port inventories were 496,300 tons, a 52,900 - ton increase from the previous week [12]. 3.4. Supply Side - Urea Capacity: Some new production capacity was put into operation in 2024 and 2025 [40]. - Urea Operating Rate: The operating rate increased rapidly, with both coal - based and gas - based operating rates rising [12][42]. - Device Maintenance: Many enterprises carried out routine, loss - based, and policy - based maintenance, and some enterprises have planned maintenance in October [45][46]. 3.5. Demand Side - Consumption: Agricultural demand is in the off - season, and exports and pre - orders before the festival provide some support [12]. - Compound Fertilizers: The operating rate declined seasonally, but profits improved [53]. - Nitrogen Source Price Ratio: The price ratios of urea to synthetic ammonia, ammonium sulfate, ammonium chloride, and monoammonium phosphate are presented in the report [57]. - Melamine: The operating rate, profits, and export volume data of melamine are provided [59][60][63]. - Terminal Demand: Data on the export volume of plywood, housing construction, and real - estate transaction area are presented [69][73]. - Export: Export profits are good, and data on the export volume of urea, ammonium sulfate, ammonium chloride, and other fertilizers are provided [79][80][82]. 3.6. Options - Related - Data on the trading volume, open interest, PCR, and volatility of urea options are presented [91][93][100]. 3.7. Industrial Structure Diagram - Diagrams of the urea industry chain, research framework, and industry chain characteristics are provided [103][105][107]. - A summary of the seasonal demand for chemical fertilizers in different regions in China and major countries around the world is given, showing that the demand for chemical fertilizers has obvious seasonal characteristics [110].