印尼矿难推升铜价，有色金属整体维持震荡

Group 1: Investment Ratings and Core Views Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the document. Report's Core Views - The impact of the Grasberg mine accident in Indonesia on copper supply and prices is long - term, and copper prices are likely to rise. Aluminum prices are expected to decline in the short - term but can be considered for long - positions at low prices. Zinc prices will maintain a weak oscillation. Lead prices will oscillate in the short - term and may face pressure after the holiday. Nickel and stainless steel prices are in a state of oversupply in the medium - to - long term, and short - positions can be held at high prices. Tin prices are expected to be supported and should be traded within a range. Industrial silicon, polycrystalline silicon, and other products need to pay attention to policy and market supply - demand changes. Carbonate lithium prices are expected to be supported in the short - term, but the impact of mining rights issues needs to be watched [2][4]. Group 2: Metal - Specific Summaries Copper - Price Movement: This week, copper prices soared and then fell back from high levels. The Grasberg mine accident led to a short - term increase in prices, but the impact is long - term. Short - term prices may continue to oscillate at high levels, with support at 80,500. - Supply and Demand: The accident at the Grasberg mine in Indonesia will reduce production by about 270,000 tons in 2026. Domestic refineries are in a high - maintenance period, and inventory has decreased slightly. - Market Factors: High copper prices have weakened domestic consumption, and the Fed's interest - rate cut rhythm is uncertain. Macro factors are strong overseas and weak domestically. - Investment Advice: Before the holiday, it is recommended to trade cautiously and closely monitor changes in domestic and foreign inventories [2]. Aluminum - Price Movement: Aluminum prices fell from high levels. Guinea's bauxite prices decreased, and alumina prices weakened. - Supply and Demand: Alumina production capacity increased, and electrolytic aluminum production capacity also increased slightly. Downstream demand entered the peak season, and inventory decreased significantly. - Investment Advice: It is recommended to go long at low prices, and for alumina, it is advisable to wait and see [2]. Zinc - Price Movement: Zinc prices oscillated weakly last week. - Supply and Demand: Zinc concentrate supply is abundant, and refinery profits are high, resulting in high refined zinc production. Terminal consumption in the peak season recovered limitedly, and downstream enterprises maintained just - in - time procurement. - Investment Advice: It is expected that zinc prices will maintain a weak oscillation, and it is recommended to trade with a short - bias within the range [2]. Lead - Price Movement: Lead prices oscillated after rising from low levels. - Supply and Demand: Supply decreased due to enterprise shutdowns and maintenance, and inventory decreased to a four - month low. However, the post - holiday supply is expected to increase. - Investment Advice: In the short - term, lead prices may continue to oscillate, and it is recommended to trade within the range of 17,000 - 17,300 [2]. Nickel - Price Movement: Nickel prices rose and then fell last week. - Supply and Demand: Nickel ore supply may be abundant, refined nickel is in surplus, and nickel - iron price increases are limited. Stainless steel production is high, and inventory has increased. - Investment Advice: In the medium - to - long term, nickel supply is in surplus. It is recommended to hold short - positions at high prices, and stainless steel should be traded within a range [4]. Tin - Price Movement: Tin prices oscillated within an upward channel. - Supply and Demand: Tin ore supply is tight, and downstream consumption in the semiconductor and other industries is recovering. Inventory is at a medium level. - Investment Advice: It is recommended to trade within the range of 260,000 - 280,000 yuan/ton and pay attention to supply resumption and downstream demand [4]. Industrial Silicon - Price Movement: Industrial silicon prices oscillated widely. - Supply and Demand: Production increased slightly, and inventory increased. The production of polycrystalline silicon also increased slightly, and the photovoltaic industry's production schedule may decline in October. - Investment Advice: It is recommended to trade with a long - bias in the short - term or wait and see [4]. Carbonate Lithium - Price Movement: Carbonate lithium prices oscillated horizontally. - Supply and Demand: Domestic supply and demand are in a tight balance, and South American imports may supplement supply. Downstream demand in the energy - storage sector is good. - Investment Advice: It is recommended to wait and see or trade cautiously, and pay attention to the impact of mining rights issues in Yichun [4]. Group 3: Macro - Economic Data 9/22 - 9/28 Week - China's September LPR remained unchanged, with the one - year at 3% and the five - year at 3.5%. - The eurozone's September consumer confidence index improved, and the comprehensive PMI exceeded expectations. - The US September Markit manufacturing and service PMI declined, but the second - quarter GDP growth was revised upwards to 3.8%. The August core PCE price index was in line with expectations [13][17][19]. 9/29 - 10/5 Week - Forecast data for various economic indicators such as the eurozone's economic sentiment index, China's official PMI, and the US consumer confidence index are provided, but the actual values are not announced [22].