Workflow
2025年四季度橡胶策略报告-20250929
Guang Da Qi Huo·2025-09-29 05:15
  1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Supply side: Domestic rubber production areas have been affected by rainfall and tropical cyclones, especially Hainan. Overseas rainfall is relatively normal, and production will increase in the fourth - quarter peak season. There is a high probability of a La Nina event in 2025, and the zero - tariff scope for imported rubber continues to expand. Rubber supply in China is expected to recover in the fourth quarter without extreme weather [100]. - Demand side: The demand for all - steel tires is better than that of semi - steel tires. Overseas trade barriers for domestic tires are rising, increasing export pressure. The "Automobile Industry Steady Growth Work Plan (2025 - 2026)" was introduced, but the automobile sales in the fourth quarter still face challenges [100]. - Price: Due to uncertain weather, tariff barriers, and the test of domestic demand, rubber prices are expected to fluctuate widely in the fourth quarter, with support at around 14,500 yuan/ton and a mid - term fluctuation range of 14,500 - 17,000 yuan/ton [100]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Price: Narrow - range Fluctuation in the Futures Market No detailed content provided in this regard. 3.2 Supply: Double La Nina Events, Increased Weather Uncertainty - Domestic Weather Impact: This year, there have been more tropical cyclones affecting Hainan, and the precipitation in domestic production areas has been affected. It is predicted that there will be 10 - 12 typhoons in the northwest Pacific and South China Sea in the autumn of 2025, with 3 - 4 landing in China [10][13]. - Global Output: In July 2025, the global natural rubber output was expected to decrease slightly by 0.1% to 1.328 million tons, but increased by 7.9% compared with the previous month. The full - year output in 2025 is expected to increase by 0.5% to 14.892 million tons [19][24]. - La Nina Probability: The probability of a La Nina event from October to December 2025 is 71%. A double La Nina event may occur in 2025, which may make Southeast Asia wetter and southern China drier in winter [30]. - Tariff Policy: Since December 1, 2024, zero - tariff policies have been implemented for rubber from Myanmar, Laos, Cambodia, etc. Thailand plans to export rubber through the Mekong River channel with zero - tariff. African rubber imports to China are expected to increase in the fourth quarter [33][36]. - Overseas Exports: The total exports of major overseas producers increased year - on - year. For example, Thailand's exports in the first 8 months increased by 6.3% year - on - year, and Indonesia's increased by 10% year - on - year [37]. - EUDR Delay: The implementation of the EU Forest Law Enforcement, Governance and Trade (EUDR) has been postponed for one year due to IT and supply - chain issues [38]. - Other Supply Factors: The demand for natural rubber in Europe, America, Japan, and South Korea is limited. China's imports of natural and mixed rubber increased both year - on - year and month - on - month. The net import of butadiene rubber turned into net export [39][41][51]. 3.3 Demand: Supported by Steady Growth - Automobile Industry Policy: The "Automobile Industry Steady Growth Work Plan (2025 - 2026)" aims to achieve about 32.3 million automobile sales in 2025, with new - energy vehicle sales of about 15.5 million, and an increase of about 3% year - on - year [57]. - Tire Market: The growth momentum of semi - steel tire demand is restricted. Overseas anti - dumping investigations and tariff policies have affected tire exports. However, the production and sales of automobiles and heavy - duty trucks in China from January to August increased year - on - year [58][60][61]. 3.4 Inventory: Inflection Point in Natural Rubber Inventory Accumulation - Natural Rubber Inventory: As of September 24, 2025, the natural rubber warehouse receipts were 155,830 tons, and the 20 - rubber warehouse receipts were 44,856 tons. The social inventory of natural rubber in China was 123,500 tons as of September 14, 2025 [70][74]. - Butadiene Rubber Inventory: As of September 24, 2025, the inventory of domestic butadiene rubber sample enterprises was 32,300 tons [78]. 3.5 Position: Low Position As of September 24, 2025, the total position of natural rubber was 183,283 lots, a decrease of 26,214 lots compared with June 30; the total position of 20 - rubber was 119,808 lots, a decrease of 627 lots; the total position of BR was 102,425 lots, an increase of 47,106 lots [82].