贵金属日评：全球财政赤字扩张预期支撑贵金属价格-20250929

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - Although the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in October has decreased and the number of expected rate cuts in 2026 has been reduced from 3 to 2, the expected expansion of fiscal deficits in many countries globally, geopolitical risks such as the Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Palestine conflicts, and the continuous gold purchases by central banks of many countries may support the prices of precious metals in the medium to long term [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals Market Data - Shanghai Gold: The closing price was 852.90 yuan/gram on 2025-09-26, with a change of 12.97 compared to the previous day and 9.56 compared to the previous week. The trading volume was 5,422.00, and the open interest was 219,666.00 [1] - Shanghai Silver: The closing price was 10,551.00 yuan/ten grams on 2025-09-26, with a change of 198.00 compared to the previous day and 308.00 compared to the previous week. The trading volume was 212,236.00, and the open interest was 44,832.00 [1] - COMEX Gold Futures: The closing price was 3,678.20 on 2025-09-26, with a change of 9.30 compared to the previous day and 111.60 compared to the previous week. The trading volume was 206,111.00, and the open interest was 402,555.00 [1] - International Gold: The London gold spot price was 3,769.85 dollars/ounce on 2025-09-26, with a change of 39.10 compared to the previous day and 126.15 compared to the previous week. The SPDR Gold ETF holdings were 1,005.72 tons [1] - COMEX Silver Futures: The closing price was 46.37 on 2025-09-26, with a change of 0.90 compared to the previous day and 4.27 compared to the previous week. The trading volume was 101,291.00, and the open interest was 134,631.00 [1] - International Silver: The London silver spot price was 3.15 dollars/ounce on 2025-09-26, with a change of 0.06 compared to the previous day and 4.27 compared to the previous week. The iShares Silver ETF holdings were 15,361.84 tons [1] Important Information - The US core PCE price index in August increased by 0.2% month-on-month, in line with expectations, and consumer spending has increased for three consecutive months. The White House stated that Trump's drug tariffs do not apply to trade agreement parties such as the EU and Japan, and the tariff rate is 15% instead of 100% [1] - On September 30, the US government's federal funds will be exhausted, and the Senate will reconvene to review a temporary spending bill. The Republican members of the US House of Representatives recently announced a temporary spending bill to avoid a government shutdown on October 1, but the bill does not include the healthcare policy requested by the Democrats, leading to a standoff between the two parties [1] Trading Strategy - It is recommended to go long when the price falls. For London gold, pay attention to the support level around 3,400 - 3,500 and the resistance level around 3,840 - 4,065. For Shanghai gold, pay attention to the support level around 800 - 810 and the resistance level around 880 - 930. For London silver, pay attention to the support level around 39 - 40 and the resistance level around 45.3 - 47.5. For Shanghai silver, pay attention to the support level around 9,500 - 9,700 and the resistance level around 10,500 - 11,350 [1]