Guo Mao Qi Huo·2025-09-29 05:32Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - In the short - term, the increase in demand leads to a supply - demand mismatch, which supports the futures price. However, in the medium - to - long - term, the pattern of supply surplus remains unchanged. The approaching traditional peak season of new energy vehicles has led to downstream inventory - building demand, and the increase in capacity electricity price and the expansion of the spot price difference have made the economy of independent energy storage more prominent, with strong installation demand. Meanwhile, the overall increase in production is the main factor suppressing the futures price [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Lithium Compounds - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate has an average price of 73,600, a decrease of 150; SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate has an average price of 71,350, a decrease of 150. The price difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 2,250 [1][2]. - Futures contracts: Lithium carbonate 2510 has a closing price of 72,680 with a decline of 0.57%; lithium carbonate 2511 has a closing price of 72,880 with a decline of 0.95%; lithium carbonate 2512 has a closing price of 72,940 with a decline of 0.98%; lithium carbonate 2601 has a closing price of 72,820 with a decline of 1.09%; lithium carbonate 2602 has a closing price of 72,600 with a decline of 1.04% [1]. Lithium Ore - Lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) has an average price of 857, an increase of 44. Lithium mica with Li20: 1.5% - 2.0% has a price of 1140; with Li20: 2.0% - 2.5% has a price of 1875; phosphate - lithium - aluminum ore with Li20: 6% - 7% has a price of 6150; with Li20: 7% - 8% has a price of 7285 [1][2]. Cathode Materials - The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) is 33,650, a decrease of 40; the average price of ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power type) is 148,800, an increase of 750; the average price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type) is 121,350, an increase of 600; the average price of ternary material 613 (single - crystal/power type) is 126,200, an increase of 600 [2]. Price Differences - The price difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 2,250; the price difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and the main contract is 720, with a change of 1010; the price difference between the near - month and the first - continuous contract is - 200, with a change of 100; the price difference between the near - month and the second - continuous contract is - 260, with a change of 60 [2]. Inventory - The total inventory (weekly, tons) is 136,825, a decrease of 706; the inventory of smelters (weekly, tons) is 33,492, a decrease of 964; the inventory of downstream (weekly, tons) is 60,893, an increase of 1398; the inventory of others (weekly, tons) is 42,440, a decrease of 1140; the registered warehouse receipts (daily, tons) is 40,329, an increase of 20 [2]. Profit Estimation - The cash cost of purchased lithium spodumene concentrate is 75,418, and the profit is - 2,888; the cash cost of purchased lithium mica concentrate and the profit are not clearly presented, but the profit is - 8,189 [3]. Company News - Longpan Times, a joint - venture company of CATL and Longpan Technology, stopped production on September 25th, and most employees are on holiday. It may resume production in November due to the suspension of raw material supply from CATL [3].