豆粕、豆油期货品种周报-20250929

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The mid - term trend of the soybean meal futures main contract is in a wide - range oscillatory phase, lacking strong upward momentum but supported by import costs. The soybean oil futures main contract is in an oscillatory consolidation phase, affected by various factors such as inventory, demand, and policies [8][30]. - To avoid the risk of external market fluctuations during the National Day holiday, it is recommended to hold a light or empty position [12][34]. 3. Summary by Directory Soybean Meal Futures Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term trend: The soybean meal main contract is in a wide - range oscillation. In the 38th week, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.4275 million tons, with an operating rate of 67.76%. The soybean meal inventory was 1.25 million tons, an increase of 85,600 tons or 7.35% from the previous week. The high inventory may be alleviated by partial holiday shutdowns. Demand is restricted by breeding losses, but pre - holiday stocking demand has warmed up the market. The mid - term trend is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation, and it is necessary to pay attention to Sino - US trade progress and South American weather [8]. Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: The soybean meal futures price was in a sideways phase, with more bullish funds. M2601 was expected to oscillate between 2900 - 3200 [11]. - This week's strategy suggestion: To avoid the risk of external market fluctuations during the National Day holiday, it is recommended to hold a light or empty position [12]. - Variety diagnosis: The main funds are strongly bearish, with a large inflow of funds and a high risk of market reversal [15]. Relevant Data - The report data comes from Wind, Mysteel, and the Great Wall Futures Trading Consultation Department, including soybean meal weekly production, inventory, apparent consumption, weekly inventory days, basis, and oil - meal ratio [19][23][26]. Soybean Oil Futures Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term trend: The soybean oil main contract is in an oscillatory consolidation phase. In the 38th week, the actual production of 125 oil mills was 461,200 tons, an increase of 12,700 tons from the previous week. The commercial inventory in key regions was 1.2359 million tons, a decrease of 15,300 tons from the previous week. Double - festival stocking has slightly increased trading volume, but slow catering demand recovery restricts提货 volume. High operating rates and sufficient port inventories suppress spot prices. After the exhaustion of Argentina's tax - free quota, market sentiment has recovered. The futures show an oscillatory trend affected by US bio - fuel policies and competing oils. It is necessary to pay attention to import costs, competing oil trends, and macro - policies [30]. Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: The soybean oil futures price was in a sideways phase, with more bullish funds. Y2601 may continue to oscillate in the short term [33]. - This week's strategy suggestion: To avoid the risk of external market fluctuations during the National Day holiday, it is recommended to hold a light or empty position [34]. Relevant Data - The report data comes from Wind, Mysteel, and the Great Wall Futures Trading Consultation Department, including soybean oil weekly production, inventory, basis, trading volume, soybean weekly arrival volume, inventory, crushing volume, operating rate, port inventory, and Brazilian premium [42][46][52]