纯碱、玻璃期货品种周报-20250929

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The soda ash futures are in a volatile stage. Given that the current fundamentals have not substantially improved, it is expected to continue the volatile pattern in the short - term, and subsequent attention should be paid to inventory reduction. The glass futures are also in a volatile trend. Although the market has rebounded due to policy and pre - holiday factors, the fundamental support is insufficient, and the risk of sentiment decline should be guarded against [6][28]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Soda Ash Futures 3.1.1 Mid - line Market Analysis - The soda ash market in China was narrowly volatile last week with regional price differentiation. Supply increased as some plants resumed production, while downstream demand was stable with mainly rigid procurement. The pre - holiday stockpiling had limited impact on the market. Soda ash futures first declined and then rose. Due to the unchanged fundamentals, it is expected to continue the volatile pattern in the short - term, and subsequent attention should be paid to inventory reduction. The recommended strategy is to wait and see [6]. 3.1.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last Week's Strategy Review: The soda ash market continued to be narrowly volatile last week with limited price fluctuations and light trading. Supply was abundant, demand was weak, and inventory remained high. The futures market oscillated downward. It was expected to remain weak in the short - term, and attention should be paid to pre - holiday stockpiling. The expected operating range of soda ash 2601 was 1200 - 1350, and it was advisable to wait and see [9]. - This Week's Strategy Suggestion: The domestic soda ash market was narrowly volatile last week with regional price differentiation. Supply increased slightly, demand was stable but not strong enough, and inventory pressure was acceptable. The futures first declined and then rose, but the high inventory restricted the rebound space. It is expected to continue the volatile pattern in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the substantial improvement of fundamentals. The expected operating range of soda ash 2601 is 1200 - 1350 [10]. 3.1.3 Relevant Data Situation - The relevant data include weekly data on China's soda ash开工率,产量,轻质库存,重质库存,基差 (daily), and the production cost of the ammonia - soda process in North China [11][15][17]. - The variety diagnosis shows that the multi - empty flow is - 26.7, indicating that the main force is slightly bearish; the capital energy is - 34.8, indicating a small outflow of main - force funds; and the multi - empty divergence is 81.3, suggesting a relatively high risk of market reversal [20]. 3.2 Glass Futures 3.2.1 Mid - line Market Analysis - The domestic float glass market first stabilized and then rose last week. Policy benefits and pre - holiday rush work drove up prices, leading to increased sales and reduced inventory. However, terminal demand remained weak. Glass futures first declined and then rose, with the short - term trading logic shifting to supply contraction expectations. But the fundamental support is insufficient, and the risk of sentiment decline should be guarded against. The recommended strategy is to hold an empty position and wait and see [28]. 3.2.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last Week's Strategy Review: The float glass market was narrowly volatile last week, with some regional price increases. Downstream demand was mainly rigid procurement, and the peak - season characteristics were not obvious. Regional inventory performance varied, and overall, there was a strong wait - and - see sentiment. Futures first rose and then fell. It was expected to continue the weak - volatile pattern in the short - term. The expected operating range of glass 2601 was 1150 - 1300, and it was advisable to hold an empty position and wait and see [31]. - This Week's Strategy Suggestion: The float glass spot market first stabilized and then rose last week. Policy and pre - holiday rush work promoted price increases and inventory reduction, but terminal demand was still weak. Futures rebounded sharply due to production - capacity control policies, but the fundamental support is insufficient. The expected operating range of glass 2601 is 1150 - 1300, and it is advisable to hold an empty position and wait and see [32]. 3.2.3 Relevant Data Situation - The relevant data include weekly data on China's float glass产量,开工率, production cost and production profit of the float process using natural gas as fuel,基差 (daily), and期末库存 [35][38][41]. - The variety diagnosis shows that the multi - empty flow is - 78.7, indicating that the main force is relatively bearish; the capital energy is - 62.5, indicating a large outflow of funds; and the multi - empty divergence is 90.2, suggesting a high risk of market reversal [46].