镍：底部运行，警惕供给端扰动

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Investment view: Range-bound trading [7] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In Q4, the path of the Fed's interest rate cuts remains uncertain, and China's growth-stabilizing policies are expected to be rolled out. Affected by macro events, nickel prices are likely to consolidate at the bottom and are more sensitive to supply-side disturbances. Focus on mining news and macro changes in Q4, and the valuation range of pure nickel can refer to the production cost of integrated electrowon nickel (which fluctuates with ore prices). In terms of operations, short-term range trading is recommended, and combination strategies such as selling out-of-the-money call options can be used to increase returns, while paying attention to risk control [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - In Q1, policies in nickel resource countries stimulated price increases; in Q2, trade conflicts and an intensified surplus led to a sharp decline; in Q3, the fundamentals were stable, and the Fed's interest rate cut in September provided a temporary boost. As of September 26, SHFE nickel closed at 121,380 yuan/ton, up 0.45% from mid-year, and LME nickel was reported at $15,230/ton, up 0.33% [8]. 3.2 Macro Analysis 3.2.1 Fed Interest Rate Cut - The Fed cut interest rates by 25bp in September, but the subsequent path remains uncertain. The economic outlook shows an upward adjustment of GDP growth expectations, while unemployment and inflation expectations are relatively stable [12][13]. - The US labor market has weakened significantly, with non-farm payrolls being persistently weak and the unemployment rate reaching a new high since October 2021. Inflation has been rising steadily, increasing market expectations for further interest rate cuts [21]. 3.2.2 China's Economic Situation - In H2, some macro data showed signs of weakening, including fixed asset investment and social consumption. The government may introduce new incremental measures in Q4, focusing on fiscal stimulus, central bank interest rate cuts, and stabilizing the real estate market [24][27]. - The "anti-involution" policies have been introduced, but their impact on the nickel industry chain is currently limited [28][29]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis 3.3.1 Supply Side - Indonesia's nickel ore supply is stable, but there are risks of policy disturbances. The premium for nickel ore remains firm, and Indonesia's imports of nickel ore from the Philippines are increasing. The RKAB quota for 2026 will be re-approved in October, attracting market attention [31][32]. - China's nickel pig iron production has declined slightly, while Indonesia's production remains high but with a slowing growth rate. The import of nickel pig iron from Indonesia has increased year-on-year [43][44]. - The import of nickel intermediate products has increased, with a decline in the import of nickel matte. Indonesia's MHP production has increased significantly, while the production of nickel matte has decreased [51][54]. - The production of refined nickel has remained high, with both imports and exports increasing. The cost of integrated electrowon nickel production will be the focus of pure nickel valuation [58][68]. 3.3.2 Demand Side - The growth rate of stainless steel production has slowed down, and the demand has shown some resilience. The social inventory of stainless steel is gradually being depleted [70][80]. - The production of nickel sulfate has remained stable year-on-year, but the low proportion of ternary materials in power batteries has dragged down the demand for nickel. In the long term, solid-state batteries may drive the demand for high-nickel ternary materials [85][88]. - The consumption of nickel in alloy and special steel has maintained a certain growth rate, and attention should be paid to the situation of national stockpiling [92][93]. 3.3.3 Inventory - Global nickel inventory has continued to accumulate, and the spot premium has weakened slightly compared to mid-year [95]. 3.3.4 Supply-Demand Balance - The surplus pattern of primary nickel continues, and attention should be paid to supply-side disturbances in Q4. It is expected that China will have a surplus of 179,800 tons of primary nickel in 2025, and the global surplus will be 246,200 tons [100][102].