液化石油气（LPG）投资周报：国庆前后地缘扰动频繁，PG价格高位回落-20250929

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on LPG is "oscillating bearish" [4] 2. Core View of the Report - In the short - term, PG prices have fallen from high levels. The upstream PG fundamentals lack obvious drivers and tend to be weak. The supply - demand of propylene in the intermediate link is under pressure, and the short - term demand for PP is saturated with a shutdown expectation in the later period. The PDH profit is expected to decline further. Attention should be paid to the flow of warehouse receipts in the market, macro and geopolitical risks [4] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - The main contract of LPG futures declined, with a fluctuation range of 4230 - 4490 yuan/ton. In the first half of the week, the international crude oil price dropped, suppressing the market trend. Both domestic and foreign spot prices fell, and the sentiment of market participants was weak, leading to a rapid decline in the market. However, the domestic propane demand increased month - on - month, the combustion demand improved successively, and the demand expectation increased. In the second half of the week, the crude oil price rebounded, and the market rebounded slightly after reaching the bottom [5] 3.2 Domestic LPG Delivery Product Spot Price and Basis - Spot Price: In different regions, the prices of civil gas, imported gas, and ether - post - C4 have different changes. For example, in the East China region, the average price of civil gas decreased by 0.50% week - on - week; in the South China region, the price of Maoming civil gas remained unchanged week - on - week [7] - Basis: The weekly average basis in East China was 126.80 yuan/ton, in South China was 357.80 yuan/ton, and in Shandong was 301.80 yuan/ton. The total number of LPG warehouse receipts increased by 1353 to 14327 lots, and the lowest deliverable area was East China [4] 3.3 LPG Futures Price, Inter - month Spread, and Cross - month Spread - Futures Price: The prices of different LPG futures contracts (PG01 - PG12) showed different degrees of decline compared with the previous week and month. For example, PG01 decreased by 4.36% week - on - week and 1.83% month - on - month [8] - Inter - month Spread: The inter - month spreads (such as PG01 - PG02, PG02 - PG03, etc.) also had different changes compared with the previous week and month. For example, the spread of PG01 - PG02 decreased by 6.06% week - on - week and increased by 3.33% month - on - month [8] - Cross - month Spread: The cross - month spreads (such as PG01 - PG03, PG02 - PG04, etc.) also showed different trends. For example, the spread of PG01 - PG03 decreased by 6.04% week - on - week and 4.76% month - on - month [8] - Arbitrage: There are month - to - month and cross - month arbitrage strategies. For example, in month - to - month arbitrage, the spread between PG2511 and PG2512 was 7.9 on the day, and the z - score was 1.7318 [8] 3.4 Refinery Device Maintenance Plan - Main Refineries: Many main refineries in China have device maintenance plans in 2025, including full - plant maintenance and partial device maintenance of some refineries such as Beihai Refining and Chemical, Hainan Refining and Chemical, etc. [9] - Local Refineries: Local refineries in Shandong, Northeast, Central China, and Northwest regions also have corresponding device maintenance plans, such as the full - plant maintenance of Shenchi Chemical, Xin泰 Petrochemical, etc. [9] 3.5 LPG Production Device and PDH Device Maintenance Plan - LPG Production Device: Some LPG production enterprises in China have device maintenance plans in 2025, such as Zhenghe Petrochemical, Huaxing Petrochemical, etc. [10] - PDH Device: Some PDH devices in China are in normal operation, while some are in shutdown or maintenance. For example, Qingdao Jinneng Phase I is in shutdown for maintenance, and it is expected to restart on October 1st [11] 3.6 Fundamental Factors Affecting LPG - Supply: Last week, the total commercial volume of LPG was about 539,200 tons. The commercial volume of civil gas was 211,200 tons (a decrease of 4.76%), industrial gas was 212,500 tons (a decrease of 0.75%), and ether - post - C4 was 170,130 tons (a decrease of 1.64%). The arrival volume of LPG last week was 650,000 tons. A refinery in Shandong plans to conduct maintenance this week, and some enterprises will reduce production, so the domestic commercial volume is expected to decline [4] - Demand: The combustion demand is gradually coming to an end, and the traditional peak - season logic is weakening. In the deep - processing of C4, affected by new energy substitution, the gasoline demand is weakening. The profit of MTBE is inverted, but the operating rate is high. The profit of alkylated gasoline has turned from profit to loss, and the loss of isobutane dehydrogenation profit is relatively deep. The ether - post - market may fall and stabilize. In the deep - processing of C3, the utilization rate of PDH production capacity is expected to decline. After the National Day, the operating rate may drop below 65%. The price of propylene in the intermediate link has fallen, and the terminal PP demand is saturated. The PDH device has shown continuous losses from propylene to PP, and the profit negative feedback effect has emerged [4] - Inventory: Last week, the factory inventory of LPG was 188,100 tons (an increase of 4.33%), and the port inventory was 3.1366 million tons (a decrease of 3.01%). The storage capacity utilization rate of the domestic LPG market increased last week. The inventory reduction in Northeast, Shandong, and Central China was relatively smooth through price concessions, but affected by adverse factors such as typhoon extreme weather and supply increase, the inventory in East China, South China, North China, and the West continued to increase. At the port, the arrival of ships decreased, and the replenishment of imported resources was insufficient [4] - Basis and Position: The weekly average basis in East China was 126.80 yuan/ton, in South China was 357.80 yuan/ton, and in Shandong was 301.80 yuan/ton. The total number of LPG warehouse receipts was 14,327 lots, an increase of 1,353 lots, and the lowest deliverable area was East China [4] - Chemical Downstream: The operating rates of PDH, MTBE, and alkylation were 69.48%, 58.35%, and 45.51% respectively. The profit of PDH to propylene was - 349 yuan/ton, the profit of MTBE isomerization was - 90 yuan/ton, and the profit of alkylation in Shandong was - 13 yuan/ton [4] - Valuation: The PG - SC ratio was - 2.47%, and the spread between PG continuous first and continuous second months was 79 yuan/ton. The continuous increase in crude oil production has dragged down the cost section, and the PG - SC cracking spread has continued to strengthen [4] - Other Factors: Crude oil is in a fundamental surplus expectation caused by geopolitical factors, sanctions, and OPEC+ production increase, and maintains range - bound trading. The non - farm payrolls data in the United States in August was lower than market expectations, with an increase in the number of unemployed people, a month - on - month decline in PPI and CPI, and economic slowdown. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25bp as expected, and it is expected to cut interest rates by 50bp or more within the year. Geopolitical situations in Russia - Ukraine, US - Venezuela, and the Middle East are frequently disturbed in the short term and tend to be tense [4] 3.7 Investment and Trading Strategies - Investment View: The upstream PG fundamentals lack obvious drivers and tend to be weak. The supply - demand of propylene in the intermediate link is under pressure, and the short - term demand for PP is saturated with a shutdown expectation in the later period. The PDH profit is expected to decline further. Overall, in the short - term, PG prices have fallen from high levels, and the profit negative feedback effect of downstream PDH is prominent [4] - Trading Strategy: For unilateral trading, it is recommended to wait and see temporarily. For arbitrage, the strategies include going long on PP2601 and short on PL2601, going long on PP2601 and short on PG2601, and going long on SC and short on PG [4]