国债半年度报告：风险偏好提升，债券吸引力下降

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market experienced a significant downturn in the second half of 2025, mainly due to the rise of the equity market and commodities, as well as institutional behavior adjustments. However, in the fourth quarter, the bond market is expected to recover, supported by the coordinated efforts of monetary and fiscal policies and the relatively friendly monetary environment [2][37][47]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Sharp Decline of Bond Futures in the Second Half of the Year - In 2025, the Treasury bond futures market was extremely volatile, with five distinct stages. From July onwards, all maturities of Treasury bond futures declined from their highs, and there was no obvious sign of stabilization in the short term. For example, the TL main contract dropped by more than 6% [3]. 3.2. Correction of Premature Pricing 3.2.1. Dominance of the Game between Institutions and the Central Bank - In the first half of the year, the market continued the bullish trend since November 2024. After the Politburo meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference, the market anticipated interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio cuts in advance, leading to a rapid decline in bond yields. However, the Central Bank took measures to cool down the market, including strict supervision, tightening of the capital market, and policy implementation, which weakened the bullish sentiment [11][12]. 3.2.2. Asset Rotation and Increased Risk Appetite - Commodity Market: In July, the anti - involution policy promoted the rise of certain commodities such as lithium carbonate, polysilicon, coking coal, and coke. The policy was later adjusted, and the enthusiasm in the commodity market subsided [20][24]. - Equity Market: Driven by factors such as technological innovation narratives and policy reforms, the domestic stock market had a strong bullish trend from July to September. Major indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, ChiNext Index, and CSI 300 all had significant increases, attracting funds from the bond market [28]. - Institutional Behavior: The revision of the regulations on public - offering fund sales fees and the possible cancellation of tax exemptions for public - offering fund dividends affected institutional behavior. Although there was some short - term panic selling, the long - term impact on the market structure was limited [34]. 3.3. Expected Recovery of the Bond Market in the Fourth Quarter - Insufficient Attractiveness of Bond Yields: In the past two years, the decline in bond yields was supported by the fundamental situation and the asset shortage environment. However, this year, the emergence of the equity market and the commodity market's bullish trends has led to a diversion of funds from the bond market [37]. - Fundamentals as the Anchor: The main negative factor for the bond market is the diversion of funds to risk assets. Although the short - term impact of asset linkage on the bond market is magnified, the market deviation will eventually be corrected. The monetary policy is expected to remain relatively loose, which is beneficial to the bond market [40]. - Synergistic Efforts of Monetary and Fiscal Policies: The Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank will cooperate more closely to improve the effectiveness of macro - policies. Considering the current economic situation, the fundamentals are still favorable for the bond market, and the bond market is expected to recover in the fourth quarter [46][47].