碳酸锂周报：旺季供需双增，价格延续震荡-20250929

Report Title - Weekly Report on Lithium Carbonate [2] Report Date - September 29, 2025 [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - The supply of lithium carbonate is affected by factors such as the suspension of the Ningde Jianxiawo mine for three months, the notice of re - examination of mining rights transfer received by production enterprises in Yichun and Qinghai, and the limited cost - reduction space of Australian mines. In August 2025, the domestic import of lithium concentrate decreased by 17.5% month - on - month, while the import of lithium carbonate increased by 57.8% month - on - month. Some manufacturers using imported lithium ore for production face cost inversion, while self - owned ore and salt lake enterprises have certain profit support, and lithium hydroxide manufacturers face greater cost pressure [5]. - In terms of demand, the overall production schedule in September increased month - on - month, with large battery cell manufacturers' production schedule increasing by 8% month - on - month. In August, the total output of power and other batteries in China increased by 4.4% month - on - month and 37.3% year - on - year, and the sales volume increased by 5.7% month - on - month and 45.6% year - on - year. The new energy vehicle market is expected to be supported by policies [6]. - This week, the inventory of lithium carbonate showed a slight accumulation. The factory inventory increased by 375 tons, the market inventory decreased by 1085 tons, and the futures inventory increased by 845 tons [6]. - Before a clear result on the lithium mining license issue in Jiangxi, the domestic supply - demand of lithium carbonate remains in a tight balance. The short - term price of lithium carbonate is expected to be supported, but the price is expected to continue to fluctuate widely. It is recommended to trade cautiously and pay attention to the progress of mining licenses in Yichun mines and the resumption of production of the Ningde Jianxiawo lithium mine [6]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Weekly Views Supply - side - Last week, the output of lithium carbonate increased by 344 tons to 21,469 tons week - on - week, and the output in August increased by 7.8% to 92,380 tons month - on - month. The Ningde Jianxiawo mine was confirmed to be shut down for three months, and production enterprises in Yichun and Qinghai received notices of re - examination of mining rights transfer [5]. - In the first quarter, Australian mines achieved cost control, and the further cost - reduction space is extremely limited. Most mainstream Australian mines have reduced their capital expenditure for fiscal year 2025 [5]. - In August 2025, the domestic import of lithium concentrate was 619,000 tons, a 17.5% month - on - month decrease. The top three countries in terms of import volume were Australia, Zimbabwe, and Nigeria. The import of lithium concentrate from Australia decreased by 50.5% month - on - month, that from Zimbabwe increased by 83.9% month - on - month, that from Nigeria decreased by 9.5% month - on - month, and the import from Mali increased by 73,000 tons. The import of lithium carbonate in August was 21,847 tons, a 57.8% month - on - month increase, with 15,608 tons from Chile, accounting for 71% [5]. - The CIF price of imported lithium spodumene concentrate decreased week - on - week, and some manufacturers using imported lithium ore for lithium carbonate production faced cost inversion. Self - owned ore and salt lake enterprises had certain profit support, while lithium hydroxide manufacturers faced greater cost pressure [5]. Demand - side - The overall production schedule in September increased month - on - month, with large battery cell manufacturers' production schedule increasing by 8% month - on - month [6]. - In August, the total output of power and other batteries in China was 139.6 GWh, a 4.4% month - on - month increase and a 37.3% year - on - year increase. The total export of power and other batteries was 22.6 GWh, a 2.6% month - on - month decrease and a 23.9% year - on - year increase. The sales volume of power and other batteries was 134.5 GWh, a 5.7% month - on - month increase and a 45.6% year - on - year increase. The new energy vehicle market is expected to be supported by policies such as the trade - in policy and the extension of the new energy vehicle purchase tax exemption [6]. Inventory - This week, the inventory of lithium carbonate showed a slight accumulation. The factory inventory increased by 375 tons, the market inventory decreased by 1085 tons, and the futures inventory increased by 845 tons [6]. Strategy Suggestion - Before a clear result on the lithium mining license issue in Jiangxi, the domestic supply - demand of lithium carbonate remains in a tight balance. The short - term price of lithium carbonate is expected to be supported due to factors such as good terminal demand for energy storage, increased production schedules of large battery cell manufacturers in the peak season of September, continuous risks of mining licenses, continuous production increase of lithium extraction from ore under the background of profit repair, and the upward movement of the cost center [6]. - As the "930" approaches, there is still no conclusion on the supply disturbance problem in Yichun, Jiangxi caused by mining licenses. The downstream production schedule exceeds expectations, and the current production reduction situation at the mine end has limited impact on the overall supply. It is necessary to pay attention to the disturbance at the Yichun mine end. In the peak season, the downstream actively purchases lithium carbonate, and the price is expected to continue to fluctuate widely. It is recommended to trade cautiously and pay attention to the progress of mining licenses in Yichun mines and the resumption of production of the Ningde Jianxiawo lithium mine [6]. 2. Key Data Tracking - The report presents multiple data charts, including the spot含税均价 of lithium carbonate, weekly and monthly production of lithium carbonate, weekly and monthly factory inventory of lithium carbonate, average price of lithium concentrate imports, production of different battery materials (such as lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, etc.), import volume of lithium spodumene, average price of lithium iron phosphate for power use, import volume of lithium carbonate, and market price of ternary materials 8 - series: NCA type [8][9][11]