Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The cost side is under pressure, while the fundamentals of polyester staple fiber are fair. Upstream TA and EG are expected to accumulate inventory in the fourth quarter, putting pressure on prices. PX has a loose fundamental situation, and with crude oil under pressure, PX prices are expected to fluctuate weakly. PTA has a situation of increasing supply and weak demand, and if the planned TA maintenance in the fourth quarter is implemented as scheduled, it will bring some improvement to the fundamentals. Ethylene glycol has a situation of strong supply and weak demand, with a loose fundamental pattern and expected inventory accumulation in the future, so its price is expected to be under pressure. [73] - On the supply side, the operating load of polyester staple fiber is at a historical high. From January to September 2025, the average operating load of polyester staple fiber was 89.29%, a 7.58 - percentage - point increase compared to the same period last year. In terms of device changes, a 200,000 - ton staple fiber device of the former Jingwei resumed production in April, and a 100,000 - ton (including 20,000 - ton staple fiber) device of Xinhongxiang (formerly Xinghong) resumed production in May. It is expected that although there will be no new device put into operation for direct - spinning polyester staple fiber by the end of 2025, the effective production capacity will increase. As of September 26, the inventory of polyester staple fiber was 9.3 days, a decrease of 3.5 days compared to June 27. [73] - On the demand side, there is a pattern of a non - prosperous peak season. As of September 26, the operating rate of polyester yarn was 64.2%, a decrease of 2.6 percentage points compared to June 27; the operating rate of looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 70%, a month - on - month increase of 4 percentage points. From January to August 2025, the cumulative yarn production in China was 12.194 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.5%. The cumulative cloth production was 1.6418 billion meters, a year - on - year decrease of 1.3%. As of August 2025, the yarn inventory of textile enterprises was 26.58 days, a decrease of 0.65 days compared to the end of the second quarter. The grey cloth inventory was 33.87 days, a decrease of 2.74 days compared to the end of the second quarter. In the off - season of the fourth quarter, the finished - product inventory of textile enterprises is expected to increase. [73] - Overall, compared with other polyester products, the fundamentals of staple fiber are relatively better. The supply operating rate is at a high level, the finished - product inventory is being depleted, and downstream has the ability to digest staple fiber. The performance in October may be similar to that in September. With upstream prices under pressure, it will benefit the profit repair of downstream staple fiber. If the demand for staple fiber exceeds expectations, the price elasticity of staple fiber will be relatively large. [73] Summary by Directory 1. Polyester Staple Fiber Price: Fluctuating with Crude Oil Prices - From June 30 to September 24, 2025, the PF main contract closing price decreased from 6,542 yuan/ton to 6,296 yuan/ton, a decrease of 246 yuan/ton or 3.8%. The 1.4D direct - spinning polyester staple fiber price decreased from 6,805 yuan/ton to 6,460 yuan/ton, a decrease of 345 yuan/ton or 5.1%. The basis decreased from 263 yuan/ton to 164 yuan/ton, a decrease of 99 yuan/ton or 37.6%. [4] - Regarding the price difference of polyester staple fiber, from June 30 to September 24, 2025, the PF01 - PF05 price difference changed from 22 yuan/ton to - 68 yuan/ton, a decrease of 90 yuan/ton or 409.1%. The PF05 - PF09 price difference changed from - 82 yuan/ton to - 62 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton or - 24.4%. The PF09 - PF01 price difference changed from 60 yuan/ton to 130 yuan/ton, an increase of 70 yuan/ton or 116.7%. [9] - For raw material prices, from June 30 to September 25, 2025, the PTA closing price decreased from 4,798 yuan/ton to 4,678 yuan/ton, a decrease of 120 yuan/ton or 2.5%. The MEG closing price decreased from 4,267 yuan/ton to 4,246 yuan/ton, a decrease of 21 yuan/ton or 0.5%. The PX closing price decreased from 6,796 yuan/ton to 6,674 yuan/ton, a decrease of 122 yuan/ton or 1.8%. [12] 2. Polyester Staple Fiber Cost Side: Pay Attention to the New Device Commissioning - For PTA, from January to September 2025, the average operating load of domestic PTA was 77.54%, a 1.84 - percentage - point decrease compared to the same period last year. The average processing fee was 241 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan/ton compared to the same period last year. In the third quarter, Sanfangxiang's 3.2 - million - ton new production capacity was put into operation, and two 1.2 - million - ton old production lines were shut down. In the fourth quarter, Dushan Energy's No. 4 3 - million - ton production capacity is planned to be put into operation. From January to August 2025, the PTA production was 48.45 million tons, an increase of 1.61 million tons or 3.4% compared to the same period last year. From January to August 2025, the cumulative PTA export volume was 2.5302 million tons, a decrease of 0.5133 million tons or 16.86% compared to the same period last year. [15][19] - For ethylene glycol, from January to August 2025, the average operating load of ethylene glycol in the Chinese mainland was 69.71%, a 5.24 - percentage - point increase compared to the same period last year. The average operating load of coal - based ethylene glycol was 70.18%, a 7.32 - percentage - point increase compared to the same period last year. From January to August 2025, the domestic ethylene glycol production was 13.398 million tons, an increase of 0.97 million tons or 7.8% compared to the same period last year. The production of the syngas oxalic acid hydrogenation catalytic process was 4.919 million tons, an increase of 0.5795 million tons or 13.4% compared to the same period last year. The production increase of non - syngas - based devices was 0.3905 million tons, an increase of 4.8% compared to the same period last year. From January to August 2025, the cumulative ethylene glycol import volume was 5.0284 million tons, a 16% increase compared to the same period last year. As of September 22, the ethylene glycol port inventory in the East China main port area was about 467,000 tons, a decrease of 78,000 tons compared to June 30. [22][25] 3. Polyester Staple Fiber Supply Side: Sustained High - Level Operation - From January to September 2025, the average operating load of polyester staple fiber was 89.29%, a 7.58 - percentage - point increase compared to the same period last year. Some devices resumed production this year, and it is expected that although there will be no new device put into operation for direct - spinning polyester staple fiber by the end of 2025, the effective production capacity will increase. [73] - As of September 26, the inventory of polyester staple fiber was 9.3 days, a decrease of 3.5 days compared to June 27. [34][73] 4. Polyester Staple Fiber Demand Side: Slow Order Recovery - As of September 26, the operating rate of polyester yarn was 64.2%, a decrease of 2.6 percentage points compared to June 27; the operating rate of looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 70%, a month - on - month increase of 4 percentage points. [38][73] - From January to August 2025, the cumulative yarn production in China was 12.194 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.5%. The cumulative cloth production was 1.6418 billion meters, a year - on - year decrease of 1.3%. [43][73] - As of August 2025, the yarn inventory of textile enterprises was 26.58 days, a decrease of 0.65 days compared to the end of the second quarter. The grey cloth inventory was 33.87 days, a decrease of 2.74 days compared to the end of the second quarter. In the off - season of the fourth quarter, the finished - product inventory of textile enterprises is expected to increase. [46][73] - From January to August 2025, the cumulative export volume of uncombed polyester staple fiber (primary + recycled) in China was 1.0964 million tons, an increase of 0.2499 million tons or 29.52% compared to the same period last year. [49] 5. Polyester Staple Fiber Terminal Demand: Expected Contraction of Terminal Demand - From January to August 2025, the cumulative export value of textile and clothing was 197.27 billion US dollars, a decrease of 0.2%. Among them, the export value of textiles was 94.51 billion US dollars, an increase of 1.6%, and the export value of clothing was 102.76 billion US dollars, a decrease of 1.7%. [53] - From January to August 2025, the retail sales of consumer goods of above - quota units in the city were 8.967 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 11.2%. Among them, the retail sales of consumer goods excluding automobiles were 6.874 billion yuan, a decrease of 14.3%. From January to August, the online retail sales of physical goods were 8.0964 trillion yuan, an increase of 6.4%, 0.1 percentage points faster than that from January to July and 1.8 percentage points faster than the same - period total retail sales of social consumer goods, accounting for 25.0% of the total retail sales of social consumer goods. From January to August, among the online retail sales of physical goods, the sales of food, clothing, and daily - use goods increased by 15.0%, 2.4%, and 5.7% respectively. From January to August 2025, the clothing retail sales reached 940 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.9%, 1.7 percentage points weaker than the growth rate of total retail sales of social consumer goods. [59] 6. Polyester Staple Fiber Positioning Situation - As of September 24, 2025, the positions of PF2601, PF2605, and PF2509 were 30,803 lots, 244 lots, and 3 lots respectively. Compared with June 30, 2025, the positions of PF2601 and PF2605 increased by 29,031 lots and 230 lots respectively, while the position of PF2509 decreased by 70,497 lots. [65] - There are also relevant analyses of the historical volatility and option volume and position put - call ratios of polyester staple fiber options. [66][72]
2025年四季度涤纶短纤策略报告-20250929
Guang Da Qi Huo·2025-09-29 05:42