2025四季度宏观策略报告-20250929

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The stabilization and recovery of fixed - asset investment growth require the central government to increase fiscal leverage, as real - estate storage and infrastructure funds face challenges [2][8]. - China is undergoing an economic re - balance from investment to consumption. The government's assessment method may shift from GDP to increasing the proportion of consumption in GDP. Future policies may reform the social security system to release consumption potential [2][25]. - A moderate recovery of inflation is a prerequisite for releasing consumption potential. Inflation recovery will drive corporate profit improvement, increase residents' income, and then achieve consumption recovery. Future inflation is expected to stabilize and rebound [2][52]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Investment: Central Fiscal Leverage Expected to Increase - Real - estate: The downward inertia is large, policy support is gradually increasing, but demand - side stimulus policies have under - performed expectations. The progress of real - estate storage is accelerating, and central fiscal funds are crucial for breaking the "impossible triangle" among storage parties, sellers, and commercial banks [9][10][11]. - Infrastructure: The growth rate of infrastructure investment is declining. As of September 14, the proportion of new special bonds invested in land reserves is 14.3%. If the scale of land - reserve special bonds continues to increase this year, the funds for traditional infrastructure may be less than in 2024. The infrastructure investment structure will continue to be divided, with central - government - led projects stronger and local - government - led projects weaker. The estimated overall infrastructure growth rate in 2025 is about 2.6% [14][18][20]. - Manufacturing: "Anti - involution" in emerging industries mainly restricts capital expenditure and capacity expansion, leading to a slowdown in manufacturing investment growth [22]. 3.2 Consumption: Structural Reform of Economic Re - balance - Policy Support: A series of consumption - related policies have been introduced, including measures to expand service consumption, financial support for consumption, and special action plans to boost consumption. These policies address both the supply and demand sides of consumption [25]. - Problems in Consumption: China's consumption rate is relatively low, mainly due to low household consumption rates. Factors include income polarization, large urban - rural income gaps, an imperfect social security system, and a low proportion of service consumption [28][33][37]. - Solutions: The "Boosting Consumption Special Action" addresses key consumption issues from multiple aspects such as income increase, consumption capacity support, service supply improvement, and policy support. Future consumption policies may focus more on service consumption [41][42][50]. 3.3 Inflation: An Important Tool to Stabilize Expectations and Promote Consumption - Relationship with Consumption: A moderate recovery of inflation is necessary for releasing consumption potential. Inflation recovery drives corporate profit improvement, increases residents' income, and promotes consumption recovery [52]. - CPI Differentiation: There are two significant differentiations in CPI. The core CPI and CPI are diverging, and service consumption and commodity consumption within the core CPI are also diverging. Future consumption policies may shift towards service consumption [55]. - Inflation Outlook: Considering the central bank's stance and the expected increase in "anti - involution" policies, future inflation will stabilize and rebound. Although inflation is in a state of "weak reality and strong expectation" in the second half of the year, the data recovery may occur in the first half of next year [58].