航运衍生品数据日报-20250929

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - The shipping market is currently in a state of flux, with spot freight rates on the trans - Pacific route falling and carriers taking measures to stabilize prices. The European route is expected to experience a transition between the off - season and peak season, and the implementation of shipping companies' price increases is uncertain. A 10 - 12 positive spread strategy is recommended [4][6][7][8][9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Shipping Freight Index - Spot Freight Index: The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) and China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) both declined. SCFI dropped by 6.97% to 1115, and CCFI decreased by 2.93% to 1087. Rates on various routes such as the US West, US East, Northwest Europe, and Mediterranean also saw significant drops, with the SCFIS - Northwest Europe falling 17.15% to 1193 and the SCFI - Mediterranean down 9.34% to 1485 [5]. - Contract Freight Index: Most of the contract freight indices showed a slight decline, except for EC2506 which had a 0.08% increase to 1483.5. EC2608 decreased by 0.66% to 1617.2, EC2510 dropped by 2.90% to 1139.0, etc. [5]. - Position and Spread: Positions in some contracts decreased, like EC2606 position decreased by 14 to 938 and EC2608 by 14 to 542. The 10 - 12 spread decreased by 27.9 to - 638.0, the 12 - 2 spread increased by 5.1 to 92.0, and the 12 - 4 spread increased by 10.4 to 508.4 [5]. 3.2 Market News and Its Impact - Trans - Pacific shipping companies are increasing capacity cuts to stop the decline in freight rates. Spot freight rates on the east - west trans - Pacific route have fallen below the fixed contract prices signed by medium - sized retailers in May. In the next four weeks, trans - Pacific liner companies will accelerate the implementation of blank sailings to stabilize falling spot freight rates [6]. 3.3 EC Market Review - Market Trend: The market is in a state of oscillation. The main reason is that CM4 has raised the November freight rate to 3000, and MSK's unchanged freight rate in the second week of October has increased the expectation of a halt in the decline. MSK has announced a price increase of 400 for the late - October freight rate to 1800 [7]. - Spot Prices: This week, the GEMINI October upper - half price dropped to 1500, OA to 1550, PA to 1400, and MSC to 1600. In late September, the FMK freight rate center was around 1500 [7]. 3.4 Market Logic and Strategy - Logic: In late September, shipping companies collectively cut prices to grab cargo, and the freight rate once dropped to 1300 dollars/FEU. Before the peak season at the end of the year, Maersk took the lead in announcing a 400 - dollar/FEU price increase for late October. However, due to the decline in both supply and demand in October, it is likely to return to the off - season market. The European route will focus on price stabilization and support during the transition between the off - season and peak season, and the implementation of shipping companies' price increases is uncertain [8]. - Strategy: A 10 - 12 positive spread strategy is recommended [9].