【早间看点】SPPOMA马棕9月前25日产量环比减4.14% PAN巴西大豆播种进度已达4.16%-20250929

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints The report presents a comprehensive overview of the futures market, including spot prices, fundamental information, macro - news, and capital flows. It covers multiple commodities such as palm oil, soybeans, and their derivatives, as well as related macro - economic indicators and policy actions. 3. Summary by Directory 01 Spot Quotes - The closing price of BMD Malaysian palm oil futures contract 12 was 4396.00, with a previous - day decline of 0.99% [1]. - Brent crude oil futures contract 12 on ICE closed at 68.82, with a previous - day increase of 0.03% and an overnight decline of 1.40% [1]. - NYMEX WTI crude oil futures contract 11 closed at 65.19, with a previous - day decline of 0.05% and an overnight decline of 1.72% [1]. - CBOT soybean futures contract 11 closed at 1014.00, with a previous - day increase of 0.20% and an overnight decline of 0.07% [1]. - The US dollar index was at 98.16, with a decline of 0.28% [1]. 02 Spot Quotes (Continued) - For DCE palm oil futures contract 2601, the spot price in North China was 9340, with a basis of 90 and a daily basis change of - 10 [2]. - For DCE soybean oil futures contract 2601, the spot price in Shandong was 8420, with a basis of 222 [2]. - For DCE soybean meal futures contract 2601, the spot price in Shandong was 2920, with a basis of - 25 and a daily basis change of 11 [2]. - The CNF quote for Brazilian imported soybeans was 478 dollars per ton, with a CNF premium of 290 cents per bushel [2]. 03 Important Fundamental Information 3.1 Production Area Weather - From October 1 to 5, high - temperature conditions will continue in major US soybean - producing states, with varying precipitation levels [3]. - The weather in the US Midwest will become dry over the weekend and this week, which is conducive to corn harvesting. However, scattered showers may delay the harvesting progress in the south and east regions until Thursday, but the drought situation may improve [5]. 3.2 International Supply and Demand - From September 1 - 25, 2025, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 4.14% month - on - month, with a 3.19% decrease in yield per unit area and a 0.18% decrease in oil extraction rate [7]. - From September 1 - 25, 2025, Malaysian palm oil product exports were 795,947 tons, a 14.73% decrease compared to the same period last month [7]. - India's edible oil imports in the 2025/26 fiscal year are expected to increase by 4.6% to a record 17.1 million tons, driven by a 13.4% surge in palm oil imports to 9.3 million tons [8]. - As of the week ending September 23, CBOT soybean long positions decreased by 1407 lots to 165,944 lots, and short positions increased by 14,032 lots to 160,196 lots [8]. - Brazil's 2025/26 new - season soybean planting has started rapidly, with 4.16% of the expected planting area already sown, compared to 0.54% in the same period last year [9]. - As of last Friday, the soybean planting progress in Mato Grosso, Brazil, reached 5.97%, much faster than the 0.53% in the same period last year [9]. - After Argentina suspended the grain export tax from last Tuesday to Wednesday, it still has 7.6 million tons of soybean derivatives and 8.9 million tons of corn available for export, with a total value of 4.93 billion dollars [9]. - Consulting firm Expana has raised its forecast for EU rapeseed production in the current year to 20.4 million tons, a 21.4% increase from the previous year [10]. - As of the week ending September 24, the rapeseed harvesting rate in Saskatchewan, Canada, was 41.7% [10]. - In 2024, rapeseed accounted for less than a quarter of the raw materials for biodiesel and renewable diesel in Canada. Canada imported a large amount of used biodiesel and renewable diesel [11]. - On Friday, the Baltic Dry Index decreased by 7 points or 0.31% to 2259 points, with a weekly increase of 2.5% [12]. 3.3 Domestic Supply and Demand - On September 28, the trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil was 0 tons, a 100% decrease compared to the previous trading day [14]. - On September 28, the trading volume of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills was 30,500 tons, a decrease of 32,000 tons compared to the previous trading day [14]. - In the 39th week (September 20 - 26), the actual soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills was 2.2672 million tons, with an operating rate of 63.28%, 120,600 tons lower than the forecast [14]. - As of the week ending September 26, the self - breeding and self - raising pig farming profit was a loss of 74.11 yuan per head, and the profit from purchasing piglets for farming was a loss of 236.57 yuan per head [15]. - On September 28, the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" was 118.85, up 0.07 points from last Friday [15]. 04 Macroeconomic News 4.1 International News - The final value of the US one - year inflation rate expectation in September was 4.7%, lower than the expected 4.8% [17]. - The final value of the US Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in September was 55.1, lower than the expected 55.4 [17]. - The US core PCE price index annual rate in August was 2.9%, in line with expectations [17]. - The EU has appealed the panel report on the Indonesian biodiesel import tariff dispute at the WTO [17]. 4.2 Domestic News - On September 26, the US dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate was reported at 7.1152, up 34 points (depreciation of the Chinese yuan) [19]. - On September 26, the People's Bank of China conducted 165.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of 188.5 billion yuan [19]. - In August, the profits of industrial enterprises above the designated size in China increased by 20.4% year - on - year, compared to a 1.5% decline in the previous month [20]. - The third - quarter (110th) regular meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee of the People's Bank of China was held on September 23, emphasizing the implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy [20]. 05 Capital Flows - On September 26, 2025, the futures market had a net capital outflow of 7.678 billion yuan, including a net outflow of 7.205 billion yuan in the commodity futures market, 246 million yuan in the stock index futures market, and 132 million yuan in the treasury bond futures market [22]. 06 Arbitrage Tracking No relevant content provided.