Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Agricultural Rural Ministry's September supply - demand report predicts China's 2025/26 soybean production to reach a record 21.09 million tons. With the new - season harvest, the supply is abundant, pressuring the spot and futures prices. Although the futures market rebounded this week due to short - covering, the future price pressure remains significant [2]. - The 2603 and later contracts on the futures side may benefit from the release of selling pressure and potential acquisition policies, showing a high potential for a bottom - out and rebound. The mid - and downstream acquisition entities can gradually build forward inventories during the price bottoming and grinding process in the fourth quarter [5]. - The resumption of auctions has a diminishing impact on the futures market. Attention should be paid to the auction results on the 29th [2][7]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - The new - season harvest has led to an abundant supply, weakening the spot and futures prices. The futures market rebounded this week due to short - covering, but the 11 - contract's rebound may be difficult to sustain. The price in the Heilongjiang main production area has declined, and further pressure is expected [2]. - The 2603 and later contracts on the futures side may benefit from the release of selling pressure and acquisition policies. The uncertainty of US soybean imports may have a neutral - to - positive impact on domestic soybean pressing demand [5]. 1.2 Trading Strategy Recommendations - Trend Judgment: The market is in a downward relay. New orders can consider short - selling on rebounds. The 2511 selling hedging strategy for planting entities can be held until the spot grain is sold. The previously sold call option with the underlying a2511 - C - 4050 can also be held [10]. - Basis, Calendar Spread, and Hedging Arbitrage Strategies: During the new - season listing period, there is no recommended basis strategy. The near - month contracts are expected to be more affected by the concentrated listing, while the far - month contracts may be supported by policies and improved demand. Attention should be paid to the calendar spread performance [10][11]. 1.3 Industry Customer Operation Recommendations - The predicted price range for the 11 - contract of soybeans in the current month is 3850 - 4000 yuan, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 10.16% and a historical percentile of 31.4% [10]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - Positive Information: The National Food and Strategic Reserves Administration held a meeting on autumn grain acquisition, emphasizing the importance of maintaining market stability. Short - covering led to a continuous rebound in the market [13]. - Negative Information: The new - season supply pressure, the decline in new - grain quotes, and the continuation of auction activities are negative factors for the price [13]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - During the National Day holiday, pay attention to the price trends in the soybean - producing areas as the harvest progresses. Also, focus on the auction results on the 29th [13]. Chapter 3: Market Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Fund Interpretation - This week, the soybean futures market showed a significant rebound after hitting a new low. The main 11 - contract rose 31 yuan/ton or 0.79% this week. The trading volume increased significantly, and the open interest decreased substantially. The registered warehouse receipts slightly decreased to 7578 lots. The short - term upward trend is limited, and short - selling on rebounds can be considered [13]. - The basis has returned, but its reference value is limited at this stage. The near - month contracts performed slightly stronger than the far - month contracts this week [18][22]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industry Chain - The new - season soybean price has started low and continued to decline. Considering the reduced planting cost and high - yield expectations, the price is expected to remain under pressure during the peak listing period. The downstream demand is mainly for rigid replenishment, and the profit situation is acceptable [27]. Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 5.1 Supply - Side and Deduction - In October, the supply of domestic soybeans will reach a peak. The resumption of auctions increases the supply pressure. The supply pressure may be alleviated by acquisition policies, but the potential short - selling sentiment in the grassroots may delay the price decline [30]. - Attention should be paid to the performance of high - oil soybean planting and the matching between the upstream and downstream industries. 5.2 Demand - Side and Deduction - In October, the edible consumption market may turn from weak to strong. The pressing demand may increase when the raw material price drops. Policy support may be provided to activate domestic soybean pressing demand, but this has high uncertainty [30]. - The lack of US soybean supply provides sales opportunities for domestic soybeans. The edible market is the basic demand, while the pressing market is the major variable in demand [31].
南华期货豆：产业周报：空方平仓支撑期价反弹，新季压力有待释放-20250929
Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-09-29 06:09