国庆长假，有色金属基本面浅析

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The recent strong performance of non-ferrous metals is mainly influenced by risk aversion, financial attributes, and emergencies. However, the downstream spot demand and industry fundamentals have not shown significant improvement. The non-ferrous metal market is highly uncertain during the National Day holiday, so excessive optimism is not advisable [11]. Summary by Directory Macro Fundamentals - The US will impose a new round of high tariffs on various imported products starting from October 1, which, along with Sino-US trade disputes, will have an adverse impact on non-ferrous metals [1]. - Global geopolitical risks are rising. The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, intensified Middle East conflicts, and border conflicts between Thailand and Cambodia have led to a strong support for precious metals due to risk aversion, and also support the financial attributes of non-ferrous metals, benefiting copper and slightly benefiting other metals [2]. - Global economic data has been poor since August, and it is unlikely to improve rapidly in the future, which is a negative factor for non-ferrous metals [3][4]. - The Federal Reserve cut interest rates for the first time in 2025 in September. The market expects two more 25 - basis - point interest rate cuts in October and December, and market sentiment is neutral [5]. - China's central bank emphasizes implementing a moderately loose monetary policy. With stable money and credit data in August, the market expects no immediate interest rate cuts or reserve requirement ratio cuts, and domestic policy may enter a stable period, with a near - neutral impact [6]. Spot Supply and Demand Situation - Eight departments jointly issued a work plan for the non - ferrous metal industry, aiming for an average annual increase of about 5% in added value from 2025 - 2026, and an average annual increase of about 1.5% in the output of ten non - ferrous metals [7]. - The traditional peak season for non - ferrous metals in China has weakened this year. The spot market has not shown an obvious peak - season trend, and the spot end has not effectively supported the market. Attention should be paid to the spot demand around the National Day [8]. - The suspension of the Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia due to a mudslide led to a 3.2% one - day increase in the three - month copper price on the LME. Although it caused short - term disturbances, the high inventory prevented obvious supply - demand mismatches, and the sustainability of the price increase is questionable [9]. - The suspension of car replacement subsidies in many regions and the change in vehicle purchase tax policy have brought uncertainty to the new energy vehicle market. The fluctuations in the automotive industry may have a significant impact on the downstream demand for non - ferrous metals such as copper and aluminum [10].