蛋白数据日报-20250929

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The domestic soybean purchase margin is poor, and the disk valuation is low. Considering the cost, there is certain support below. It is recommended to go long on dips. The future driver depends on China-US policies and South American planting season weather. [9] 3. Summary According to Relevant Content Market Data - Basis Data: On September 26th, the basis of the soybean meal main contract in Zhangjiagang was 113 (Dalian), 63 (Tianjin), and 23 (Rizhao), with increases of 30, 30, and 20 respectively. The basis of 43% soybean meal spot in Zhangjiagang was 3, with an increase of 30 [6]. - Spread Data: The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in the spot market (Guangdong) was 300, and the spread in the main contract on the disk was 532, with an increase of 9 [7]. - Inventory Data: The domestic soybean inventory has reached a high level. The oil - mill soybean meal inventory has increased but is lower than the same period last year. The number of days of soybean meal inventory in feed enterprises has increased [9]. - International Data: The US dollar to RMB exchange rate was 7.0974, with an increase of 9.00. The Brazilian soybean CNF premium and the import soybean disk gross profit showed different trends [7]. Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply: The excellent - good rate of US soybeans has dropped to 61%. Due to less rainfall in the production area recently, the excellent - good rate may continue to decline, and the US soybean yield per unit may be lowered. In October, domestic soybeans are expected to start destocking, but the domestic soybean meal supply in the fourth quarter is still expected to be loose. The purchase progress of November - January ships is slow, and the soybean meal supply in the first quarter of next year needs to be supplemented, with the source of supplementation uncertain [8][9]. - Demand: In the short term, the high inventory of pig and poultry farming is expected to support the feed demand. However, the policy aims to control the pig inventory and weight, which is expected to affect the long - term pig supply. Soybean meal has a high cost - performance ratio, and the pick - up volume is at a high level. This week, the downstream spot trading volume of soybean meal has increased [9].