文字早评2025-09-29：宏观金融类-20250929

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - For the stock index, after a continuous rise, high - level hot sectors like AI have seen divergences, with funds switching between high - and low - level stocks and rapid rotation, reducing market risk appetite. Short - term index faces uncertainty due to shrinking trading volume, but in the long - run, with policy support for the capital market unchanged, the strategy is to go long on dips [4]. - For treasury bonds, in Q4, the supply - demand pattern may improve. The market may oscillate under the intertwined situation of weak domestic demand recovery and improved inflation expectations. Attention should be paid to the stock - bond seesaw effect, and if the stock market cools and allocation forces increase, the bond market may recover [7]. - For precious metals, short - term interest rate cut expectations are frustrated, but the Fed's mid - term easing pattern remains unchanged. It is recommended to go long on dips, especially paying attention to the rising opportunity of silver prices [9]. - For non - ferrous metals, most metals are expected to have a certain degree of support in price, with some showing a trend of shock - strengthening or shock - running, mainly affected by factors such as Fed interest rate policies, trade situations, and industry supply - demand [12][14][16]. - For black building materials, steel prices are under downward pressure due to weak demand, and the iron ore price may adjust downward if the downstream situation weakens after the festival. Glass and soda ash are expected to oscillate, and manganese - silicon and ferrosilicon are likely to follow the black sector's trend [31][33][39]. - For energy and chemicals, different products have different trends. For example, rubber is weak in the short - term but bullish in the medium - term; crude oil has short - term uncertainties; and methanol's fundamentals are improving [52][54][56]. - For agricultural products, the supply - demand situation varies. For example, the pig price is weak, the egg price may stabilize after a small decline. Bean and rapeseed meal are under short - term pressure, and the price of edible oils may strengthen in the medium - term [74][76][81]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Macro - financial Stock Index - 行情资讯: The central bank aims to maintain ample liquidity and guide financial institutions to increase credit supply. The NDRC plans to build a new computing power network infrastructure. Eight - department issued a plan for the non - ferrous metal industry. The SASAC held a symposium on the economic operation of state - owned enterprises. The new energy storage market is short of cores [2]. - 期指基差比例: IF, IC, and IM show different negative basis ratios for different contract periods, while IH has positive basis ratios in some cases [3]. - 策略观点: Short - term uncertainty exists, but long - term strategy is to go long on dips [4]. Treasury Bonds - 行情资讯: On Friday, the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS had different changes. In August, industrial enterprise profits increased year - on - year. Eight - department issued a plan for the non - ferrous metal industry [5]. - 流动性: The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations on Friday, with a net injection of 4115 billion yuan [6]. - 策略观点: The bond market may oscillate in Q4, and attention should be paid to the stock - bond relationship [7]. Precious Metals - 行情资讯: Domestic and foreign precious metals had different price changes, and the positions of precious metal futures and ETFs increased significantly [8]. - 策略观点: It is recommended to go long on dips, especially for silver [9]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - 行情资讯: Copper prices declined, with changes in inventory and basis. Import losses and refined - waste spreads also had corresponding changes [11]. - 策略观点: Short - term copper prices may continue to oscillate strongly [12]. Aluminum - 行情资讯: Aluminum prices declined, with changes in inventory and basis [13]. - 策略观点: Aluminum prices have strong support below [14]. Zinc - 行情资讯: Zinc prices declined, with changes in inventory and basis [15]. - 策略观点: Short - term zinc prices may be weak [16]. Lead - 行情资讯: Lead prices increased slightly, with changes in inventory and basis [17]. - 策略观点: Short - term lead prices may be strong [17]. Nickel - 行情资讯: Nickel prices oscillated, with changes in spot prices and costs [18]. - 策略观点: Short - term observation is recommended, and long on dips can be considered if prices fall enough [18]. Tin - 行情资讯: Tin prices oscillated, with changes in supply, demand, and inventory [19]. - 策略观点: Tin prices may continue to oscillate, and observation is recommended [20]. Carbonate Lithium - 行情资讯: Carbonate lithium prices had different changes, and the price of lithium concentrate was stable [21]. - 策略观点: Carbonate lithium futures may oscillate within a range [22]. Alumina - 行情资讯: Alumina prices declined, with changes in inventory and basis [23]. - 策略观点: Observation is recommended, and attention should be paid to relevant policies [24]. Stainless Steel - 行情资讯: Stainless steel prices declined, with changes in inventory and basis [25]. - 策略观点: Stainless steel prices may oscillate in the short - term [26]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - 行情资讯: Cast aluminum alloy prices declined, with changes in inventory and basis [27]. - 策略观点: Futures may be weaker than spot, with support from scrap aluminum prices [28]. Black Building Materials Steel - 行情资讯: Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices declined, with changes in inventory and basis [30]. - 策略观点: Steel prices may be weak and volatile, and attention should be paid to the policies of the Fourth Plenary Session [31]. Iron Ore - 行情资讯: Iron ore prices declined, with changes in inventory and basis [32]. - 策略观点: Short - term iron ore prices may be strong, but may adjust downward after the festival if downstream demand weakens [33]. Glass and Soda Ash - 行情资讯: Glass and soda ash prices declined, with changes in inventory and basis [34][36]. - 策略观点: Glass can be considered slightly bullish in the short - term, and soda ash is expected to oscillate [35][37]. Manganese - Silicon and Ferrosilicon - 行情资讯: Manganese - silicon and ferrosilicon prices declined, with changes in inventory and basis [38]. - 策略观点: They are likely to follow the black sector's trend, and manganese - silicon may have potential driving factors [39][40]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - 行情资讯: Industrial silicon prices declined, and polysilicon prices had a small increase, with changes in inventory and basis [41][44]. - 策略观点: Industrial silicon may oscillate in the short - term, and polysilicon prices may decline in the short - term [43][45]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - 行情资讯: Rubber prices were weak, with factors such as expected state reserve sales and weather affecting the market [47]. - 策略观点: Mid - term bullish, short - term weak, and observation is recommended after the festival [52]. Crude Oil - 行情资讯: Crude oil and related product prices increased, with changes in inventory [53]. - 策略观点: Short - term uncertainties exist, and it is recommended to take profits on long positions and observe [54]. Methanol - 行情资讯: Methanol prices had small changes, with changes in basis [55]. - 策略观点: The fundamentals are improving, and short - term long positions can be considered on dips [56]. Urea - 行情资讯: Urea prices declined slightly, with changes in basis [57]. - 策略观点: Low - valuation and weak - driving, long positions can be considered on dips [57]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - 行情资讯: Pure benzene prices were stable, and styrene prices declined, with changes in inventory and basis [58]. - 策略观点: Styrene prices may stop falling, and observation is recommended [59]. PVC - 行情资讯: PVC prices declined, with changes in inventory and basis [60]. - 策略观点: The supply - demand situation is poor, and short - term long positions on dips can be considered [61]. Ethylene Glycol - 行情资讯: Ethylene glycol prices declined, with changes in inventory and basis [62]. - 策略观点: In the short - term, inventory may be low, but it will accumulate in the fourth quarter, and short - term long positions on dips can be considered [63]. PTA - 行情资讯: PTA prices declined, with changes in inventory and basis [64]. - 策略观点: The supply - demand situation is complex, and observation is recommended [65]. Para - Xylene - 行情资讯: PX prices declined, with changes in inventory and basis [66]. - 策略观点: PX may accumulate inventory, and observation is recommended [67]. Polyethylene (PE) - 行情资讯: PE prices declined, with changes in inventory and basis [68]. - 策略观点: PE prices may oscillate upward [69]. Polypropylene (PP) - 行情资讯: PP prices declined, with changes in inventory and basis [70]. - 策略观点: PP is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the inventory pressure is high [71]. Agricultural Products Pigs - 行情资讯: The pig price fluctuated slightly, with most areas seeing a decline [73]. - 策略观点: The pig price may be weak, and short - term short positions on near - month contracts and reverse spreads are recommended [74]. Eggs - 行情资讯: The egg price was stable with a small decline in some areas [75]. - 策略观点: The egg price may stabilize after a small decline, and short - term observation is recommended [76]. Bean and Rapeseed Meal - 行情资讯: The price of US soybeans oscillated, and the domestic bean meal price was stable. The supply - demand situation was complex [77]. - 策略观点: Short - term pressure exists, and in the medium - term, the market is expected to oscillate [78]. Edible Oils - 行情资讯: The price of edible oils rebounded, and the supply - demand situation in Malaysia and Indonesia had different changes [79][80]. - 策略观点: The price of edible oils may strengthen in the medium - term, and long positions can be considered on dips [81]. Sugar - 行情资讯: The sugar price declined slightly, and the supply - demand situation in major producing areas is expected to change [82]. - 策略观点: The sugar price is expected to decline in the long - term, and observation is recommended before the festival [83]. Cotton - 行情资讯: The cotton price declined, and the supply - demand situation was complex [84][85]. - 策略观点: The cotton price is affected by multiple factors, and short - term observation is recommended [86].