玻璃纯碱9月报：玻碱波动加剧，节后预期现实博弈-20250929

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The commodity market is in the transition from the "policy bottom" to the "market bottom." The macro - expectation is uncertain with the upcoming 4th Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee. The market is sensitive to the "anti - involution" policy, but the spot - end fundamentals improvement is limited, and the large mid - stream inventory is a major concern [2][10]. - After the holiday, the supply pressure of soda ash and glass may become apparent. The large mid - stream inventory will suppress prices. It is expected that the prices will decline after the holiday, but the decline will be limited. Attention should be paid to the policy strength, delivery - month warehouse receipts, and the implementation of coal - to - gas conversion in Shahe [2][3][5]. - In the long - term, in the context of global liquidity easing and clear anti - involution policies, the structural market will continue. However, one should be vigilant about the accumulation of industrial contradiction risks if the fundamentals do not improve [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Soda Ash Fundamental Analysis 3.1.1 Market Review - Futures: In September, the futures price of the main soda ash contract first rose and then fell, being stable with a slight upward trend. The price range moved down. The SA2601 - 05 spread showed a reverse - spread trend, and the basis of SA2601 was at a premium [8]. - Spot: Soda ash manufacturers' prices first decreased and then increased. The end - of - month prices of heavy soda ash in different regions showed different changes compared to the beginning of the month [8]. 3.1.2 Policy and Market Transition - The market is in the transition from the "policy bottom" to the "market bottom." The "anti - involution" policy expectation is sensitive, but the price is still anchored by fundamentals. Attention should be paid to the warehouse receipts in the delivery month [10]. 3.1.3 Production and Inventory - Production: In September, the monthly production of soda ash was about 3.263 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.8%. The weekly production reached a historical high of 777,000 tons. After the holiday, the supply pressure may be reflected in the upstream inventory [17]. - Inventory: The downstream replenished inventory before the holiday, and the upstream executed previous orders. The soda ash shipment rate was above the balance throughout the month. The factory inventory decreased, and the social inventory increased [30][31]. 3.1.4 Downstream Demand - Photovoltaic glass: By the end of September, the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass increased slightly, but the demand weakened. The inventory pressure increased significantly, and there are long - term concerns about demand decline [34][35]. - Light soda ash: The demand showed natural growth, and the inventory turned to destocking at the end of September. The performance of downstream industries was mixed [39]. 3.1.5 Export and Import - Export: Since the fourth quarter of 2024, the soda ash export has recovered. It is expected to maintain a high - level monthly average of over 1.6 million tons in 2025. The export volume in August 2025 was 215,000 tons, an increase of 54,000 tons from the previous month [44]. - Import: The import window is closed, and the import volume is almost zero. In August 2025, the import volume was 0.03 million tons, a decrease of 0.27 million tons from the previous month [44]. 3.1.6 Raw Material Prices and Costs - The spot prices weakened, and enterprise profits narrowed. The theoretical profits of ammonia - soda and combined - soda methods decreased. The prices of raw materials such as动力煤, ammonium chloride, and coke showed different trends [48][49]. 3.2 Glass Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Market Review - Futures: In September, the main glass contract FG2601 showed an upward - trending oscillation. The price fluctuation range widened. The 01 - 05 and 11 - 01 contract spreads declined, and the basis shrank [59]. - Spot: Affected by environmental protection and pre - holiday stocking, the downstream purchasing sentiment improved, and enterprises raised the spot prices [59]. 3.2.2 Supply - The daily melting volume of float glass remained unchanged at the end of the month. The number of operating production lines was 225, and the operating rate was 75.7%. There was no ignition or cold - repair of production lines in September, but the supply increased slightly [60]. 3.2.3 Demand - In September, the weekly average apparent demand for glass increased by 7.6% month - on - month. The demand in the traditional peak season improved, but the high mid - stream inventory still suppressed prices. The future demand is expected to decline at a slower pace, but it is still weak year - on - year [69]. 3.2.4 Real Estate Policy and Market - The real estate policy focuses on urban renewal. The completion in 2025 is still under pressure. The real estate sales decline narrowed in August, but the construction and completion areas continued to decline year - on - year [75][76]. 3.2.5 Cost and Profit - The glass cost decreased with the fall of soda ash prices, but the fuel prices (coal and petroleum coke) increased, affecting the profit of different fuel - based glass production [80].