铜价预期震荡偏强

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The Fed is entering an interest rate cut cycle, and there are also expectations of domestic monetary easing. Frequent disruptions on the copper mine supply side and the arrival of the peak demand season in September and October suggest that copper prices are expected to enter an upward cycle [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Sections 行情回顾 - Last week, the main contract of Shanghai copper maintained a volatile trend at the beginning of the week. On Thursday, it rose sharply boosted by overseas mine production cut news and maintained a high - level volatility on Friday. The closing price on Friday was 82,470 yuan/ton, about 3.2% higher than the previous week [6]. Supply and Demand Analysis - Freeport declared force majeure at the Grasberg mine in Indonesia, and it is estimated that Freeport Indonesia's production in 2026 may be about 35% lower than the pre - event forecast. Hudbay Minerals in Canada temporarily closed the Constancia concentrator due to the volatile situation in Peru, raising concerns about the copper supply chain [4]. - The machine operating rate of the enameled wire industry failed to continue its upward trend this week, dropping 0.2 percentage points to 77.73% week - on - week, and new orders also decreased by 0.81 percentage points week - on - week. The unexpected surge in copper prices on Thursday was the key factor preventing the operating rate from rising as expected. SMM predicts that the machine operating rate of the enameled wire industry will drop to 73.53% next week [4]. - Due to the sharp rise in copper prices, downstream enterprises in the North China market currently have almost no inventory replenishment demand. Poor consumption has led processing enterprises to consider extending the National Day holiday [4]. Industry Meeting - On September 24, the 5th meeting of the 3rd Council of the Copper Branch of the China Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Association was held in Xiongan New Area. Chen Xuesen, a member of the Party Committee Standing Committee and Vice - President of the association, emphasized that the "involution - style" competition in the copper smelting industry has a great impact on the industry, undermines national and industry interests, and deviates from the high - quality development orientation. Copper industry enterprises should firmly oppose such competition [4].