美国短期经济数据反弹难改降息大趋势

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term rebound of US economic data cannot change the general trend of the Fed's interest rate cuts, and the bullish pattern of precious metals will continue [2][7][8] 3. Summary Based on Related Content Precious Metals Price Performance - Last week, the prices of gold and silver continued to strengthen. The international gold price closed at $3,789 per ounce, and the international silver price closed at $46 per ounce [3] Fed's Policy and Related Speeches - Fed Chairman Powell stated last week that the increasing downside risk in the job market was the key reason for the Fed's interest rate cut. He said this was a step towards a "neutral" policy stance and emphasized that there was no preset direction for future policies. His speech caused a slight rebound in the US dollar, but it won't change the Fed's trend of further interest rate cuts [4] Key Events During the National Day Holiday - During the upcoming National Day holiday in China, the US will release September non - farm payroll data. Since the August non - farm employment was very poor and the unemployment rate reached 4.3%, if the September data is still not ideal, it will increase the expectation of another interest rate cut in October. Also, the minutes of the September Fed's interest rate meeting will be released, which can show the basis for the Fed's September interest rate cut decision and possible future policies [5] Other Influential Factors - The US debt ceiling issue is a point of contention between the two parties. If no consensus is reached by the end of September, the US government may shut down on October 1st, which could affect the financial market [6] - Trump's sudden change of stance on the Russia - Ukraine conflict, starting to take a tougher line on Russia, means that ending the conflict remains difficult and will continue to support the gold price [6] - Last Friday's US economic data showed good short - term economic indicators, with a decline in the number of initial jobless claims, an upward revision of GDP, and a slight rebound in prices. The US dollar and Treasury yields rebounded initially, but the US dollar index closed significantly lower, and precious metal prices rose, indicating that the market believes the short - term economic rebound is not enough to make the Fed change its interest rate - cut plan [8]