银河期货尿素月报-20250929

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In October, the supply side of urea will continue to climb as maintenance devices return and new capacities are released, with daily production expected to stay above 200,000 tons. The demand side remains weak overall, with agricultural demand softening after the autumn fertilizer season, but northeastern winter storage starting. Exports are approaching the deadline, and policy changes should be monitored. Urea will remain under pressure in October [5][88]. - For trading strategies, it is expected to be range - bound before the middle of the month. After the middle of the month, short - selling is recommended in the absence of new policies. For inter - period arbitrage, it is advisable to wait and see. The lower and upper bounds for options are 1550 and 1700 respectively [6][88]. Summary by Directory 1. Foreword Summary Comprehensive Analysis - In October, the supply of urea will increase steadily, while the demand is weak. Agricultural demand is sluggish after the autumn fertilizer season, and although northeastern winter storage has started, exports are approaching the deadline, so urea is under pressure [5]. Strategy Recommendation - Unilateral trading: Range - bound before the middle of the month, and short - selling after the middle of the month without new policies. - Arbitrage: Wait and see for inter - period arbitrage. - Options: The lower bound is 1550, and the upper bound is 1700 [6]. 2. Fundamental Situation Market Review - In September, the ex - factory price of domestic urea in mainstream areas declined unilaterally. The daily output increased to around 191,000 tons as the operating rate of urea enterprises rose. Exports had little impact, and demand was weak. The futures main contract fluctuated widely and ended the month with a decline. The factory - warehouse basis was - 100 yuan/ton [10][11][28]. Supply Analysis - New Additions Mostly in the Second Half of the Year - From 1 - September 2025, 360 tons of new urea production capacity was put into operation. The total annual new capacity in 2025 is expected to reach about 4 million tons, with the total capacity reaching around 8.26 million tons by the end of the year. In October, coal prices are expected to be weak, and urea production profits will continue to narrow. The daily output is expected to remain around 200,000 tons, and enterprise inventories are likely to accumulate [32][34][43]. Export Impact Gradually Fading - India still has a large urea gap, but its import demand may decrease slightly in 2025. Urea exports are expected to accelerate in August and may increase significantly in October [51][55][59]. Demand Expected to Be Released in October, and Macro - level Stimulus Policies Expected - The macro - economic recovery is slow. In October, industrial demand for urea, such as from the melamine industry, is unlikely to be strong. Agricultural demand for urea will gradually end after the autumn fertilizer season, and the support for urea prices from demand will weaken after mid - October [61][75][82]. 3. Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendation Comprehensive Analysis - In October, the supply of urea will continue to increase, and demand will be weak. Agricultural demand is softening, and exports are approaching the deadline, so urea remains under pressure [88]. Strategy Recommendation - Unilateral trading: Range - bound before the middle of the month, and short - selling after the middle of the month without new policies. - Arbitrage: Wait and see for inter - period arbitrage. - Options: The lower bound is 1550, and the upper bound is 1700 [88].