临近双节资金逐步离场，螺矿盘面小幅下挫

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - For rebar, short - term supply - demand conditions are gradually improving, with indicators such as inventory reduction and increased consumption showing the characteristics of the peak construction season, but the sustainability of inventory reduction needs further observation, and attention should be paid to factors like delivery warrants and foreign capital positions [5][8]. - For iron ore, short - term import shipments are slightly decreasing, while next week's arrivals are expected to increase slightly, and port inventory is under pressure. The demand side shows an increase in daily iron water production and steel mill consumption, and pre - holiday restocking supports the iron ore futures market [10]. 3. Summary by Category Rebar - Futures: The rebar 01 contract adjusted under the drive of increased short - position by main players, closing at 3114 yuan/ton on Friday, a weekly decline of 58 yuan or 1.83% [5]. - Spot: Mainstream rebar prices in various regions showed mixed trends, with the national average price down 11 yuan to 3288 yuan/ton [5]. - Fundamentals - Supply: The blast furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills increased, while the average operating rate and capacity utilization rate of 90 electric - arc furnace steel mills decreased. Rebar weekly output increased by 0.01 million tons to 2.0646 million tons, still at a low level year - on - year [5]. - Demand: Building material trading volume decreased slightly, while rebar apparent consumption increased slightly. The 5 - day average building material trading volume decreased by 0.05 million tons to 1.065 million tons, and rebar apparent consumption increased by 10.41 million tons to 2.2044 million tons, remaining at a low level in the same period [8]. - Inventory: The total rebar inventory decreased by 139,800 tons to 6.363 million tons, with social inventory down 133,200 tons to 4.7189 million tons and mill inventory down 6,600 tons to 1.6441 million tons [8]. - Basis: The Shanghai rebar lowest - cost delivery warrant was 3260 yuan/ton, with a premium of 146 yuan over the rebar 01 contract, an increase of 58 yuan week - on - week. It is expected that the rebar basis will likely shrink later [8]. Iron Ore - Futures: The iron ore 01 contract adjusted under the drive of reduced long - position by main players, closing at 790.0 yuan/ton on Friday, a weekly decline of 17.5 yuan/ton or 2.17% [8]. - Spot: Imported ore prices generally decreased slightly, while domestic iron concentrate prices remained stable, with average trading volume [8]. - Fundamentals - Supply: As of the 22nd, the total shipments from Australia and Brazil decreased by 2.05 million tons to 27.728 million tons. The arrivals at 45 ports increased by 3.127 million tons to 26.75 million tons [10]. - Demand: The daily average port clearance volume at 45 ports decreased by 27,700 tons to 3.364 million tons. The weekly average trading volume of port - spot iron ore increased by 174,000 tons to 1.297 million tons. The daily average hot - metal output of 247 steel mills increased by 13,400 tons to 2.4236 million tons [10]. - Inventory: As of the 26th, the iron ore inventory at 45 ports increased by 1.992 million tons to 140.0028 million tons, while the imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 426,960 tons to 97.3639 million tons [10]. - Basis: The best - delivery Newman powder at Rizhao Port was 828 yuan/ton, with a premium of 38 yuan over the iron ore 01 contract, an increase of 2 yuan week - on - week. It is expected that the iron ore basis will likely shrink later [10].