地方债周报：年内地方债发行还剩多少-20250929

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - The report analyzes the primary and secondary market conditions of local government bonds in 2025, including net financing, issuance terms, issuance spreads, secondary spreads, trading volume, and turnover rate, and also provides information on debt - resolution - related bonds and issuance plans [1][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Primary Market Conditions - Net financing: This week, local government bonds issued 196.1 billion yuan, with a repayment of 73.6 billion yuan and a net financing of 122.5 billion yuan. The issuance volume and net financing increased. Next week, the planned issuance is 107.2 billion yuan, with a repayment of 9.1 billion yuan and a net financing of 98.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 24.4 billion yuan compared to this week [1][3] - Issuance term: The 30 - year local government bond issuance accounted for the highest proportion (38%) this week, and the proportion of 10 - year and above issuances was 84%, an increase compared to last week. The 30 - year issuance proportion increased by about 16 percentage points, while the 7 - year and 10 - year proportions decreased by about 12 and 11 percentage points respectively [1][12] - Debt - resolution - related local government bonds: This week, special refinancing bonds issued 1.14 billion yuan. In 2025, 33 regions have disclosed plans to issue special bonds for replacing hidden debts, totaling 1,995.7 billion yuan. Special special bonds issued 5.06 billion yuan this week, and as of the end of this week, the disclosed and issued scales of special special bonds in 2025 are 1,204.9 billion and 1,201.2 billion yuan respectively [2][16] - Issuance spread: This week, the weighted average issuance spread of local government bonds was 23.9bp, widening compared to last week. The 15 - year local government bond had the highest weighted average issuance spread at 27.6bp. The weighted average issuance spreads of 7 - year and 10 - year local government bonds narrowed, while those of other terms widened. There was significant regional differentiation [2][25] - Fund - raising direction: As of the end of this week, the main investment directions of newly - added special bonds in 2025 were cold - chain logistics, municipal and industrial park infrastructure construction (29%), transportation infrastructure (18%), land reserve (14%), affordable housing projects (12%), and social undertakings (12%). The proportion of land reserve investment increased by 14.2% compared to 2024, while that of cold - chain logistics, municipal and industrial park infrastructure construction decreased by 7.5% [2][30] - Issuance plan: As of the end of this week, 35 regions have disclosed their local government bond issuance plans for the third quarter of 2025, with an expected total issuance of 2.9 trillion yuan. The planned issuances of new bonds and refinancing bonds in the third quarter are 1,745 billion and 1,176 billion yuan respectively. Some regions have disclosed their fourth - quarter issuance plans, totaling 844.5 billion yuan, with 540.6 billion yuan in October [3][33] 3.2 Secondary Market Conditions - Secondary spread: This week, the secondary spreads of 5 - year and 10 - year local government bonds were relatively high, and the secondary spreads of local government bonds of all terms widened. The 5 - year and 10 - year secondary spreads reached 16.1bp and 15.7bp respectively. The historical quantile of the 5 - year secondary spread in the past 3 years was relatively high at 68%. Regionally, the 3 - 5 - year secondary spreads in each region were relatively high, and the 10 - 15 - year and 15 - 20 - year secondary spreads in medium - strength and strong regions were also relatively high [5][37] - Trading volume and turnover rate: This week, the trading volume and turnover rate of local government bonds increased compared to last week. Qinghai had a relatively high turnover rate. The trading volume this week reached 489.1 billion yuan, and the turnover rate was 0.92%. Guangdong, Hunan, and Shandong had large trading volumes, and Qinghai had the highest turnover rate at 4.0%, higher than Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps' 3.7% [5][43]