Report Overview - Report Title: "Caid Futures | Coking Coal and Coke Weekly Report" - Report Date: September 29, 2025 - Core View: The coking coal and coke markets are experiencing intense competition between coking and steel enterprises, with both futures prices fluctuating. In the short term, attention should be paid to the support of the 10 - day moving average [3][5][9] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Key Points by Section 1. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Last week, the coking coal 2601 contract closed at 1196.5 on Friday, with a weekly decline of 2.88%. The spot market prices in mainstream areas showed a strong trend. The coke 2601 contract closed at 1692.5 on Friday, with a weekly decline of 2.65%. The spot market prices in mainstream areas remained stable [5] 2. Fundamental Analysis Coking Coal - Supply Side: The utilization rate of the approved production capacity of 523 coking coal mines nationwide was 86.5%, a month - on - month increase of 1.8%. The utilization rate of the production capacity of 314 independent coal washing plants was 38.2%, a month - on - month increase of 0.8%, and the daily output of clean coal was 275,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7,000 tons. Most mines maintained normal operations, but market expectations suggest that long - term coal production growth is limited. The inventory of raw coal in coking coal mines and clean coal in coal washing plants decreased [5] - Demand Side: After two consecutive rounds of price cuts for coke, coke enterprises' losses expanded, and some enterprises implemented production restrictions. However, high pig iron production, stable coke enterprise operations, and pre - National Day restocking demand led to good coking coal demand. Currently, the restocking is coming to an end, and enterprises are purchasing on - demand. The online auction prices of coking coal generally rose, but the increase slowed down over the weekend [6] - Overall: Last week, both the supply and demand of coking coal increased slightly. The coking coal 2601 contract fluctuated last week, closing below the 10 - day moving average on Friday. Short - term attention should be paid to the support of the 10 - day moving average [6] Coke - Supply Side: The utilization rate of the production capacity of all independent coking enterprises nationwide was 75.43%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.44%. The daily output was 663,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 38,000 tons. The profit per ton of coke for 30 sample coking enterprises was - 34 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 17 yuan/ton. Coking enterprises' production enthusiasm declined, and supply was restricted. The coking association proposed a price increase of 50 - 85 yuan/ton and a production restriction of over 30%. The spot price of coke at ports was strong, with general trading and a slight decrease in inventory [8] - Demand Side: The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 84.45%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.47%. The daily pig iron output was 2.4236 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 13,400 tons. The steel mill profitability rate was 58.01%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.86%. Steel mills' demand for coke increased, but due to weak terminal consumption and reduced profitability, their restocking ability was limited, and they mainly purchased on - demand [8] - Overall: Last week, both the supply and demand of coke decreased. The coke 2601 contract fluctuated last week, closing below the 10 - day moving average on Friday. Short - term attention should be paid to the support of the 10 - day moving average [9] 3. Arbitrage - Last week, the coking coal - to - coke ratio dropped significantly, with an average of 1.41. It is currently at a relatively high level in the same period of history. Attention should be paid to the range of 1.35 - 1.55. Also, pay attention to the spot prices of coal and coke, downstream product demand, steel mill production, coking and steel enterprise profits, international macro - policies, and sudden risk impacts [9] 4. Inventory and Other Data - Coking Coal Inventory: Port inventory was 265,490 tons, a decrease of 16,700 tons; all - sample independent coking plants' inventory was 999,070 tons, an increase of 58,660 tons; 247 sample steel mills' inventory was 796,070 tons, an increase of 5,730 tons; the total inventory was 2,060,630 tons, an increase of 47,690 tons [10] - Coke Inventory: Port inventory was 196,060 tons, a decrease of 8,050 tons; all - sample independent coking plants' inventory was 63,040 tons, a decrease of 3,370 tons; 247 sample steel mills' inventory was 661,310 tons, an increase of 16,640 tons; the total inventory was 920,410 tons, an increase of 5,220 tons [10] - Operating Rates and Other Data: The operating rate of coking enterprises with production capacity < 100 million tons was 52.95%, an increase of 1.05%; for those with 100 - 200 million tons, it was 71.89%, a decrease of 0.05%; for those > 200 million tons, it was 79.92%, a decrease of 0.13%. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 84.45%, a decrease of 0.47%. The steel mill profitability rate was 58.01%, a decrease of 0.86%. The cumulative pig iron production in August was 57,907,030 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.10%; the cumulative crude steel production in August was 67,180,570 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.80% [10]
焦钢博弈剧烈，双焦期价震荡运行
Cai Da Qi Huo·2025-09-29 06:32