生猪、玉米周报：生猪价格重心下移，玉米盘面低位震荡-20250929

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The price of live pigs is in a weak adjustment, and may stabilize and adjust in the short - term due to farmers' resistance to low - price sales and the double - festival consumption boost. The corn price has a downward expectation as new - season corn enters the harvest period and new grain has high moisture, and traders are not willing to build inventories [4][7] Summary by Related Catalogs Live Pigs - Futures: The LH2511 contract of live pig futures closed at 12,575 yuan/ton last week, down 2.03% from the previous week's settlement price [4] - Spot: The national average market price of outer three - yuan live pigs was 12.76 yuan/kg, a week - on - week decrease of 0.15 yuan/kg [4] - Profit: As of September 26, the self - breeding and self - raising profit was - 74.11 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 49.67 yuan/head; the profit of purchasing piglets for breeding was - 236.57 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 37.26 yuan/head; the pig - grain ratio was 5.44, a week - on - week decrease of 0.2 [4] - Market situation: The supply of leading group factories increased, demand did not improve significantly, and affected by typhoon weather in some areas, the overall market transaction was average, with weak price support. After continuous price drops, farmers' resistance to low - price sales increased, and the downstream product stocking effect appeared due to double - festival consumption [4] Corn - Futures: The C2511 contract of corn futures closed at 2,178 yuan/ton last week, up 0.32% from the previous week's settlement price [5] - Spot: The national average spot price of corn was 2,365.29 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 5.49 yuan/ton [5] - Port prices: In Jinzhou Port, the price of corn with 15% moisture and 720 bulk density was 2,240 - 2,260 yuan/ton, with the high end up 10 yuan/ton; the flat - hatch price of 15% moisture corn was 2,300 - 2,310 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week. In Bayuquan Port, the price of corn with 15% moisture and 720 bulk density was 2,240 - 2,260 yuan/ton, with the high end up 10 yuan/ton; the flat - hatch price of 15% moisture corn was 2,300 - 2,310 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week. In Guangdong Shekou Port, the transaction price of 15% moisture bulk corn was 2,410 - 2,430 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton, and the price of first - grade corn was 2,460 - 2,480 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [5] - Industrial consumption: From September 18 to September 24, 2025, 149 major corn deep - processing enterprises consumed 1.1424 million tons of corn, a week - on - week decrease of 13,900 tons. The processing volume of corn starch enterprises was 534,600 tons, an increase of 17,400 tons from the previous week; the weekly national corn starch output was 260,500 tons, an increase of 11,400 tons from the previous week; the weekly operating rate was 50.36%, an increase of 2.2% from the previous week. The operating rate of the DDGS industry was 47.88%, a decrease of 2.43% from the previous week; the weekly production of DDGS in sample enterprises was 97,440 tons, a decrease of 4,950 tons from the previous week, a decrease of 4.83% [6] - Inventory: As of September 24, 2025, the total corn inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises in 12 regions was 2.118 million tons, a decrease of 9.49%. As of September 26, the total corn inventory of the four northern ports was about 650,000 tons, and the corn inventory in Guangdong ports was 370,000 tons [6] - Market situation: The national corn spot market first fell and then rose. Farmers in the Northeast had high enthusiasm for selling grain, and the purchase price decreased; the market circulation in North China decreased, and the enterprise purchase price increased slightly. The operating rate of corn starch enterprises increased, while the operating rate of alcohol enterprises decreased. Feed enterprises had certain pre - festival stocking needs, but the overall purchase volume was limited [7] - Operation suggestion: As the National Day holiday approaches, it is recommended to hold a light position [7]