Dong Zheng Qi Huo·2025-09-29 06:36Report Overview - Report Title: How Will the Balance Evolve under High Supply and Demand Elasticity after the Supply Shock? - Research Institute: Orient Futures Derivatives Research Institute - Date: September 2025 - Analyst: Chen Yixuan 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Report's Core View - In the short term, the lithium market presents a combination of strong reality and weak expectations, with limited de - stocking and a surplus pattern. It is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities on price rallies and reverse spread opportunities for LC2511 - 2512. In the long term, although the static balance remains in surplus, the high - growth demand will ease the apparent inventory build - up pressure in 2026, and the trading strategy can gradually shift from shorting on rallies to buying on dips [61]. 3. Summary by Relevant Directory Q3 Market Review - Since the end of June, lithium prices have rebounded rapidly from the bottom to 90,000 yuan, then fluctuated after a spike. From late June to mid - July, demand expectation correction drove the price to stabilize and rebound; from mid - July to mid - August, supply - side risks led to a rapid price increase; since mid - August, after the market priced in the shutdown of Jianxiaowo, the price corrected to account for the increased supply stimulated by high prices [2][5]. Supply - Side Uncertainty - Since mid - July, mining license risks in Jiangxi and Qinghai have intensified. The shutdown of some projects raised concerns about domestic supply risks, and the expiration of Jianxiaowo's mining license in August triggered market sentiment. However, since late August, the resumption of previously shut - down projects has cooled market enthusiasm [6][8]. Supply Pressure and Inventory - High prices have accelerated the manifestation of supply pressure. After the price rebound, the output of spodumene processing increased rapidly, offsetting the reduction in mica supply. Since late August, the generation of warehouse receipts has accelerated. Currently, domestic ore inventory is still at a moderately high level, and imported ore flows in stably, with new projects expanding production capacity, so there is no significant constraint on lithium salt supply [9][11][12]. Lithium Salt Trade and Resource Output - In terms of lithium salt shipments, South American shipments are in line with capacity ramp - up expectations, and Indonesia has brought marginal increments. The regional premium has changed the trade flow of lithium salts. The revised global lithium resource supply in 2025 is expected to increase by 270,000 tons LCE year - on - year, and the impact of mining license disruptions is limited. In 2026, the project reserve is still sufficient, with an expected year - on - year increase of 300,000 tons LCE, but some mica capacity may face supply uncertainty [16][19][22]. Terminal Demand - In the power market, new - energy passenger vehicle sales in China, Europe, and the US from January to August increased by 36%, 28%, and 4% year - on - year respectively. The new - energy commercial vehicle market is a highlight, with sales in China from January to August increasing by 66% year - on - year. The domestic and overseas energy - storage markets have continuously exceeded expectations, with high growth in domestic large - scale energy - storage project bids and a significant increase in overseas exports [30][36][41]. Market Balance - In the short term, the market is in a de - stocking phase, but the de - stocking amplitude is limited. The fundamental situation supports prices in the short term but cannot drive prices up independently. In the long term, from 2025 to 2026, the global lithium resource market remains in surplus, but the apparent inventory build - up in 2026 may narrow, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio will decrease [48][51][55]. Strategy Recommendation - Short - term: Given the strong reality and weak expectations, limited de - stocking, and the expectation of project resumption, it is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities on price rallies and reverse spread opportunities for LC2511 - 2512. Long - term: As the demand growth will ease the inventory build - up pressure in 2026, the trading strategy can gradually shift from shorting on rallies to buying on dips [61].