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如何看待近期科技板块波动加大?
ZHONGTAI SECURITIES·2025-09-29 06:35
  1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Although there is short - term adjustment pressure, A - shares have strong long - term support, and the current point still has a high probability of winning. The short - term adjustment in the technology and financial sectors is normal, and there is potential for medium - and long - term growth. The financial brokerage sector has strategic allocation value and potential rebound space as long as policies remain favorable and capital market reforms continue [5]. - Due to the rising risk - aversion sentiment before the National Day holiday, the high - level technology sector may continue to decline last week. However, in the long - term, it is recommended to "hold stocks during the holiday" and focus on four types of allocation directions [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - Market Performance: Most major market indices rose last week, with the Science and Technology Innovation 50 having the largest increase of 6.47%. In the large - scale industry, the Information Technology Index and the Materials Index performed relatively well, with weekly changes of 1.71% and 0.80% respectively, while the Daily Consumption Index and the Healthcare Index performed weakly, with weekly changes of - 2.39% and - 2.11% respectively. Among the 30 Shenwan primary industries, 7 industries rose. The industries with larger increases were Power Equipment, Non - Ferrous Metals, and Electronics, rising 3.86%, 3.52%, and 3.51% respectively; the industries with larger declines were Social Services, Commerce and Retail, and Light Industry Manufacturing, falling 5.92%, 4.32%, and 2.71% respectively [7][8][15][17] - Trading Volume: The average daily trading volume of Wind All - A last week was 2313.193 billion yuan (the previous value was 2517.846 billion yuan), which was at an extremely high historical level (94.70% of the three - year historical quantile) [20] - Valuation Tracking: As of September 26, 2025, the valuation (PE_TTM) of Wind All - A was 22.12, an increase of 0.02 from the previous week, and it was at the 89.90% quantile of the historical level (in the past 5 years). Among the 30 Shenwan primary industries, the valuations (PE_TTM) of 7 industries were repaired [24] Market Observation - How to View the Recent Decline in the Technology and Financial Sectors: Last week, the market style continued to show differentiation. In the technology sector, there was a shift from high - performing to low - performing stocks, and the cyclical assets were generally weak. Although there was short - term adjustment pressure, A - shares had strong long - term support. From the capital side, there was potential for new funds to enter the market, the pressure of industrial capital withdrawal eased, and the willingness to finance and go long was stable. From the news side, large - scale capital investment and positive IPO news provided momentum for the technology sector. The adjustment of the financial brokerage sector was likely a process of long - term funds gradually deploying at low prices, and it had strategic allocation value [5] - How to View the Recent Upturn in the A - share Technology Sector: Investment advice was to "hold stocks during the holiday" and focus on four types of allocation directions: the main line of technological innovation, the "anti - involution" theme, the sectors benefiting from the easing of Sino - US relations, and the brokerage sector [6] Global Economic Calendar - Domestic economic data to be released this week include China's official comprehensive PMI and China's Caixin Manufacturing PMI. Overseas economic data include changes in the number of US ADP employees, the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow economic growth forecast, the US U6 unemployment rate (%), seasonally adjusted changes in non - farm payrolls, the US unemployment rate (%), and the US Markit Composite PMI [26]