Group 1: Report Summary - The bond market may move forward in a volatile manner in the fourth quarter [3][5][16] - There is still an opportunity for overall easing in monetary policy, and the period around the important meeting in October is a crucial time window [3][10] - The "redemption pressure" has become long - term and complex, which may still impact the bond market in the fourth quarter [4][12][14] Group 2: Core Views Short - and Medium - term Views - In the short term, the bond market is still under pressure. It is important to verify that the rebound high of long - term interest rates is gradually decreasing. If it is verified that around 1.8% is the relatively top level of the 10 - year Treasury bond, the bond - bull logic of the downward - trending yield can still be maintained. In the medium term, the recovery of risk preference is more reflected in the term spread premium, and in extreme cases, it may return to the level of 50 - 60BP [3][10] Monetary Policy Views - The third - quarter monetary policy meeting did not release clear incremental policy signals. But considering factors such as the Fed's interest rate cut, the adjustment of liability interest rates after the previous reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts, the policy demand to maintain economic improvement, and the marginal cooling of the equity market sentiment, there is still an opportunity for overall easing. The period around the important meeting in October is a crucial time window [3][10] Redemption Pressure Views - The new regulations on public fund redemption fees are about to be implemented. The redemption game around the systematic adjustment of the product liability side is ongoing. The institutional - end redemption may be more orderly, which may lead to a stage where the upward risk of yields is controllable but difficult to decline significantly. However, there may also be a stage of concentrated release of negative - feedback risks [4][12][14] Seasonal, Valuation, and Factor Analysis - Seasonally, since 2010, in 15 years, the 10 - year yield has accumulated an increase in 8 years and a decrease in 7 years in the fourth quarter. Considering the cumulative decline in the first three quarters, the bond market in the fourth quarter is seasonally weak and in need of adjustment. In terms of valuation, the bond market has allocation value. Considering factors such as the slowdown of supply pressure, the possible occurrence of monetary easing opportunities, and the continuous existence of redemption pressure, the bond market may alternate between recovery and adjustment [5][16] Group 3: Content Summarized by Directory Fourth - Quarter Bond Market Outlook - Short - term pressure remains, and it is necessary to verify the decline of long - term interest rate rebound highs. Medium - term risk preference recovery affects term spreads. There is an opportunity for monetary easing around the October meeting. The redemption pressure is long - term and complex, and the bond market may move forward in a volatile manner, alternating between recovery due to allocation value and adjustment due to redemption pressure [3][4][5] Comparison of Monetary Policy Meetings in Q3 and Q2 of 2025 - The assessment of the economic situation has not changed significantly. The monetary policy emphasizes continuity, stability, flexibility, and foresight. It aims to maintain liquidity, guide credit investment, reduce financing costs, and support key areas [11][12][13] Impact of Redemption Pressure on the Bond Market - The new regulations on public fund redemption fees are about to be implemented. The institutional - end redemption demand is increasing, the asset - end selection space after redemption is limited, and there is time for adjustment during the transition period. This may lead to a complex impact on the bond market [4][12][14]
流动性周报:四季度债市怎么看?-20250929
China Post Securities·2025-09-29 06:49