生猪投资周报：出栏量兑现，产能出清仍需时间-20250929

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Investment view: Oscillating with a bearish bias [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The recent increase in supply has made the spot market weak, and the downstream demand is limited. The futures market may remain weak. The 01 contract's upside is restricted by increased production capacity until February next year. If there are winter epidemics, there will be short - term selling pressure. With piglets in continuous loss for a month, if the loss situation persists, the long - term investment value of the far - month 07 contract can be considered [2] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review 3.1.1 Spot Market Review - In September, the spot price hit a new low since the beginning of the year, and the overall price center has been declining. The price mainly fluctuates between 12.8 yuan/kg and 16 yuan/kg, with no obvious seasonal trend. The recent decline is due to increased supply and high slaughter weight, indicating abundant production capacity [4] - From July to August, affected by winter piglet losses, the slaughter slowed down. In June, under the background of anti - involution, production capacity regulation stimulated the spot market. The price difference between standard and fat pigs widened, and group farms reduced slaughter while secondary fattening was active, leading to a price increase in July. In September, the slaughter growth inflection point arrived, with production capacity restoration from high - profit piglets in the first quarter. The anti - involution sentiment faded, and the spot price dropped to the lowest point of the year, but the decline was gentle compared to the past five years [6] 3.1.2 Spread Market Review - Affected by anti - involution, the futures - spot structure has shifted to contango. As the spot market weakened in September, the futures market followed passively, maintaining the contango structure. The 07 contract has the highest price due to the expected impact of production capacity reduction on next year's second half - year supply [3][7] 3.2 Capacity Realization in the Cycle 3.2.1 Gradual Restoration of Reproductive Sows - In the second half of the year, the monthly change in the number of reproductive sows was small. As of the end of July, the national inventory of reproductive sows was 40.42 million, 103.6% of the normal level of 39 million. According to the meeting, the number of reproductive sows is expected to be reduced by 1 million by the end of the year, still above the normal level [3][10] 3.2.2 Obvious Improvement in Production Efficiency - In the third quarter, the monthly slaughter volume increased significantly, reflecting the restoration of piglet production capacity in spring. The high piglet profit in February and March stimulated breeding, and the number of piglets increased. The slaughter volume is expected to continue to rise until February 2026, with a significant increase from September to November [3][13] - Since 2023, production efficiency has improved significantly. The average number of healthy piglets per litter has shown an upward trend and remained stable at a high level throughout the year, which is related to increased production capacity and attention to piglet survival rate due to high profits [15] 3.2.3 Steady Increase in Slaughter Weight - The large price difference between standard and fat pigs this year led to low expectations for weight reduction. In the second half of the year, the slaughter weight reached the highest level in the past five years. Although leading enterprises have reduced the weight, the overall national weight reduction is not obvious. The current average national slaughter weight is 128.32 kg, still at a high level in the past five years. Continuous secondary fattening has hindered active weight reduction [16][18] 3.3 Breeding Profit - This week, the self - breeding and self - raising profit entered a loss, ending 16 consecutive months of positive profit. However, the cash cost of breeding is still positive. The positive profit in this cycle is mainly due to the decline in feed raw material prices and the reduction of purchased piglet prices to the cost level. Short - term losses have little impact on breeding behavior, but if losses continue for more than a quarter, there may be motivation to reduce production capacity [21][23] 3.4 Stable Demand - This year's slaughter volume is better than last year, and the overall demand is normal. During the fourth - quarter peak season, the relatively low pig price supports demand. The increase in the frozen product inventory rate reflects the expectation of production capacity reduction in the future [24] 3.5 Policy Attention - The policy focuses on the active reduction of reproductive sows, aiming to reduce the number by 1 million by the end of the year. If implemented, it may affect the pig slaughter volume in the second half of next year. The current pig - grain ratio has triggered the purchase and storage policy. Although the grain price increase is limited due to a good corn harvest, attention should still be paid to policies related to the pig - grain ratio caused by falling pig prices [27]