贵金属10月报-20250929

Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: "Precious Metals 10 - Month Report (September 29, 2025)" [4][15][18] - Report Theme: "Multiple factors resonate, and the strength of precious metals remains unchanged" [4] Group 2: Market Review and Outlook - The report presents the disk trends of London Gold, London Silver, Shanghai Gold, and Shanghai Silver, but specific analysis of the trends is not provided in the given content [12][14] Group 3: Macroeconomic Factors - Employment Data: The report shows data on US new non - farm employment numbers, new non - farm and ADP employment numbers (3 - month average), labor participation rate, and new non - farm employment structure, which can reflect the situation of the US labor market [24][28] - Inflation Data: The US CPI year - on - year and CPI sub - item data are presented, including the month - on - month and year - on - year changes of various sub - items such as food, energy, and core CPI, which help to understand the inflation situation in the United States [33][34] - Asset Price Data: The US Manheim used - car price index and Zillow rent index are shown, which can reflect the price trends of related assets [36][37] - Interest Rate Expectations: The CME FedWatch data shows the probability of different interest rate ranges at different FOMC meeting dates, reflecting the market's expectations for the Fed's interest rate decisions [38] - Fiscal Situation: The US government budget balance, fiscal deficit, and fiscal deficit as a percentage of GDP are presented, which can reflect the US fiscal situation [43][44] Group 4: Fundamental Factors - US Debt and Interest Expenses: The US debt level and interest expenses are presented, which can affect the economic and financial situation [48][49] - Gold Supply and Demand: The gold supply and demand balance sheet shows data on gold supply (including mine production, producer net hedging, and recycled gold) and demand (including jewelry manufacturing, investment, and central bank purchases) from 2014 to 2025H1, and their year - on - year changes. For example, in 2025H1, total gold supply was 2,423 tons, a 1% increase year - on - year, and total demand was 2,385 tons, a 13% increase year - on - year [51] - China's Gold Market: Data on China's gold production, imports, consumption, and related inventory are presented, which can reflect the situation of the Chinese gold market [55] - Gold ETF and CFTC Positions: Data on different regions' gold ETF net flows, gold CFTC positions, and China's silver production, exports, and various inventory data (LBMA, COMEX, SHFE, SGE) are presented [57][59][64] - Silver in the Photovoltaic Industry: Forecasts of the world's new photovoltaic installed capacity, China's new photovoltaic cell production, TOPCon battery silver paste consumption trends, and photovoltaic silver powder production are presented, which can reflect the demand for silver in the photovoltaic industry [72][73] Group 5: Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendations - No specific content about future outlook and strategy recommendations is provided in the given text, only the title is shown [78]