CMS·2025-09-29 07:04Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the industry [2] Core Insights - The total loan scale of 42 listed banks reached 184 trillion yuan by June 2025, with corporate loans accounting for 121 trillion yuan (65.74%) and retail loans at 63 trillion yuan (34.26%) [16][19] - The proportion of retail loans has decreased, with corporate loans providing the main incremental growth. Since 2020, the share of retail loans in total loans has dropped from 41.22% to 34.26%, while corporate loans increased from 58.78% to 65.74%, achieving a credit increment of 78% during this period [16][17] - The decline in retail loans is attributed to weak real estate and consumer demand, with personal housing loans decreasing from 20.18% to 14.11% and credit card loans from 4.96% to 3.39% from 2020 to June 2025 [17][18] - Corporate loans have shifted focus from real estate to broad infrastructure, with corporate real estate loans accounting for only 5% of total loans by June 2025, down from 1.39 percentage points since 2020. Broad infrastructure loans have increased by 5.20 percentage points [18] Summary by Sections Overall Credit Structure Changes - As of June 2025, the total loan scale of listed banks is 184 trillion yuan, with corporate loans at 121 trillion yuan (65.74%) and retail loans at 63 trillion yuan (34.26%) [16] - The shift in credit structure aligns with national strategic guidance and economic cycles, with corporate loans expanding at a much faster rate than retail loans [16][17] Changes in Retail Loan Structure - Personal housing loans and credit card loans have seen a decline in their proportions due to weak real estate and consumer demand [17] - The share of personal housing loans decreased from 20.18% to 14.11%, while credit card loans fell from 4.96% to 3.39% from 2020 to June 2025 [17] Changes in Corporate Loan Structure - Corporate loans have become the core focus for banks during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, with a cautious approach to real estate lending [18] - The proportion of corporate real estate loans has decreased to 5%, while broad infrastructure loans have increased significantly [18]