Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. Core Views of the Report - Global crude oil supply is expected to be abundant, with the surplus continuously expanding. In the fourth quarter, global crude oil demand will first decline and then rebound. Given the overall loose supply, the short - term decline in demand may have a more significant negative impact on crude oil prices. Even if demand rises in December, global crude oil supply will still be in a surplus state [9]. - In the polyester industry chain, both the cost side and industrial demand will face downward pressure in the fourth quarter, but supply is also expected to decline accordingly, resulting in a pattern of weak supply and demand. The decline in supply may be more obvious than that in demand. The spot production profits of various polyester industry chain products are generally low. Therefore, during the traditional off - season of demand, the price performance of the polyester industry chain may not be poor, and it is expected to show a trend of being low at first and then high in the fourth quarter [9]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Polyester Industry Chain Market Review - In the third quarter, international crude oil prices first rebounded and then declined, with a slight cumulative decrease and a weak trend. The prices of the polyester industry chain generally followed crude oil. In July, prices generally rebounded, and from August to September, they declined. In August - September, the demand of the polyester industry increased slightly, and the operating rates of PX and PTA rose in September, showing a pattern of double - growth in supply and demand. Coupled with the weak operation of the cost side, prices continued to fall in the first half of September. In late September, due to the rebound of international oil prices, the prices of related products in the polyester industry chain generally rebounded from low levels, while the price of ethylene glycol was weak [15]. - PX: The operating rate was low in July but showed a continuous upward trend from August to September, reaching the highest level this year in mid - September. In late August, the planned maintenance of Zhejiang Petrochemical's 2 million tons/year PX unit was postponed, and other maintenance units restarted, causing the operating rate to rise instead of fall. In August, PX imports increased month - on - month, reaching the highest single - month level this year. From June to August, new PTA units were put into operation, but the new PTA units had limited short - term impact on boosting PX consumption. In September, the PTA operating rate increased slightly, but the operating level was lower than the same period last year, and the change in PX demand was not obvious [16]. - PTA: The operating rate was generally stable in July, significantly declined in August due to many unit overhauls, and increased slightly in September. The spot processing fee of PTA was continuously low in the third quarter, and the enthusiasm of factories for production was not high. In September, multiple overhauled PTA units restarted, and the operating rate increased month - on - month compared with August. In July, PTA supply was stable, but demand weakened due to the continuous decline of the polyester operating rate, and social inventory increased. In August, due to the decline of the PTA operating rate, although the polyester operating rate was at a low level, PTA social inventory decreased slightly. In September, with the increase of both the PTA operating rate and the polyester operating rate, the overall situation was a double - growth pattern of supply and demand, and the change in PTA social inventory was not significant [20][21]. - MEG: The comprehensive operating rate of ethylene glycol increased steadily in the third quarter. In mid - August, the operating rate decreased significantly but quickly recovered. The domestic ethylene glycol output was generally stable at a high level in the third quarter. The consumption of ethylene glycol was relatively stable. The port inventory of ethylene glycol in Jiangsu and Zhejiang only increased slightly in early August. At the beginning of September, the inventory in Jiangsu and Zhejiang fell below 400,000 tons, reaching a new low this year and lower than the same period in previous years. The price of ethylene glycol rose continuously in July, fluctuated narrowly in August, and declined continuously in September [24]. - Short Fiber: The operating rate of short fiber was relatively stable in the third quarter, and the monthly output from July to August was basically the same. The operating rate of pure polyester yarn decreased less than last year in the third quarter, but the increase during the recovery stage was also weak, and the current operating level was lower than the same period last year. The short - fiber market showed a pattern of weak supply and demand in the first eight months, with weaker demand being more obvious. The spot processing fee of short fiber fluctuated repeatedly in the third quarter, generally rising in July, falling in August, and rising again in September [25]. - Bottle Chip: The operating rate of polyester bottle chips began to decline in late May, remained at a low level from early July to the end of August, and then increased slightly but was still relatively low. From a seasonal perspective, the domestic demand for bottle chips was generally stable from July to August, and bottle - chip exports decreased month - on - month in August, reaching the lowest single - month level since March. The spot processing fee of bottle chips increased slightly continuously in July and then fluctuated narrowly at a low level. The spot price of bottle chips generally oscillated downward in the third quarter, and the closing price of the main contract fluctuated. The basis of bottle chips decreased continuously from July to August and increased slightly in September, with the futures and spot prices at par [30]. 2. OPEC+ Continues to Increase Crude Oil Production, Intensifying the Expectation of Supply Surplus - EIA Keeps Raising Crude Oil Supply Forecasts, and the Expectation of Supply Growth Continues: In the third quarter, international crude oil prices first rose and then fell. In July, supported by the expectation of the peak demand season, international crude oil prices were strong. However, due to OPEC+'s continuous decisions to increase crude oil production at each monthly meeting, the global crude oil supply surplus is expected to intensify. Since April, OPEC+ has gradually lifted the voluntary production - cut plan and made monthly decisions to increase crude oil production. From July to September, OPEC meetings continued the production - increase policy. Affected by OPEC+'s continuous production increase, EIA raised the global crude oil production forecast for three consecutive months from June to September, with the largest increase in the August EIA report [32]. - Seasonal Fluctuation of Demand, with Overall Loose Supply: The supply and demand of international crude oil are relatively loose, but from the statistical data of the US crude oil, the supply surplus is not obvious. The number of US oil and gas rigs is still hovering at the bottom. As of September 26, 2025, the number of US oil and gas rigs was 549, including 424 crude oil rigs, which rebounded from a low level but was still low. The latest weekly US crude oil production data showed that as of the week of September 19, US crude oil production was 13.501 million barrels per day, which generally increased slightly from August to September and was at a relatively high level, but significant growth was difficult. The consumption of crude oil has two peak seasons due to the US summer travel peak and winter heating demand. The seasonal changes in global crude oil demand are basically synchronized with those in the US. In the third quarter, the capacity utilization rate of US refineries first increased and then decreased, and was higher than the same period last year for most of the time. After mid - September, the refinery operating rate showed a downward trend, and October is usually a period when the refinery operating rate performs poorly. The EIA commercial crude oil inventory fluctuated repeatedly in the third quarter, with no obvious trend, and is currently near the annual low. It is expected to continue to rise in October. The strategic reserve inventory has been gradually increasing slightly since November 2023. The US gasoline inventory decreased rapidly from July to August, generally higher than the same period last year, and the decline rate slowed down in September. With the continuous decline of the capacity utilization rate of US refineries, the US gasoline inventory will resume the continuous decline trend in October [38][40][41]. 3. Supply of Mid - upstream Products in the Industry Chain is Stable, and Low Profits Still Affect the Supply Side - PX and PTA Operating Rates Fluctuate Repeatedly, and PTA New Units are Gradually Put into Production: As of now, there are no new PX production units this year. From June to August, two new PTA units were put into production, and in May, a new ethylene glycol unit was put into production. There are still plans to put new PTA and ethylene glycol units into production by the end of the year. The PX operating rate was relatively low in July due to unit overhauls, and increased continuously from August to September. In the fourth quarter, Zhejiang Petrochemical's 2 million - ton and Sinochem Quanzhou's 800,000 - ton PX units are planned for maintenance. The PTA operating rate increased slightly in July and then was generally stable, but there were still many overhauls in August. In September, some PTA units restarted, and the operating rate increased slightly. In the fourth quarter, there are plans to overhaul multiple PTA units. From January to August 2025, China's PX production decreased year - on - year, imports increased, and the supply decreased slightly year - on - year. PX consumption increased year - on - year. PTA exports decreased year - on - year, and the spot processing fee was poor in the third quarter [49][50][53]. - Ethylene Glycol Operating Rate Increases Steadily, and the Operating Condition of Coal - based Ethylene Glycol is Better than Expected: In May 2025, the first - phase 600,000 - ton/year ethylene glycol unit of Sichuan Zhengdakai was successfully commissioned, and the ethylene glycol capacity increased slightly. According to the new unit commissioning plan, Shandong Yulong Petrochemical's 1 million - ton/year ethylene glycol unit may be put into production in October. The coal - based ethylene glycol operating rate increased steadily in the third quarter, with only a short - term decline in mid - August. From January to August 2025, China's ethylene glycol production and imports increased, and the supply increased significantly year - on - year. The profit of oil - based ethylene glycol was better than last year, showing a narrow - range fluctuation, and the theoretical calculation of oil - based ethylene glycol production was still in a loss state. The profit of coal - based ethylene glycol was generally good but declined significantly in the third quarter [62][64][67]. 4. The Demand of the Industry Chain in the Fourth Quarter is High at First and then Low, with Overall Insipid Demand - The Demand for Textile Raw Materials in the Traditional Peak Season is Weak, and the Demand for Bottle Chips will Continue to Weaken: Since 2025, new units of filament, bottle chips, and film have been put into production. The polyester capacity has increased slightly this year, with bottle - chip capacity accounting for the majority. In the third quarter, the demand for textile raw materials was in the stage of turning from off - season to peak season, showing the characteristics of an off - season that is not off and a peak season that is not peak. From January to August 2025, China's polyester production increased year - on - year, mainly driven by bottle - chip production. The increase in polyester production drove up the consumption of PTA and ethylene glycol [70][71][76]. - PTA and Ethylene Glycol May Accumulate Inventory, and the Supply Side will Determine Inventory Changes: The PTA social inventory reached a phased high in late February this year and then gradually declined from March to early July. In the third quarter, the overall change was not significant. In September, it changed from continuous inventory reduction in August to slight inventory accumulation. The ethylene glycol port inventory in the third quarter generally showed a downward - oscillating trend. In October - November, the demand for polyester raw materials is expected to weaken, and ethylene glycol may accumulate inventory [81][82]. - Polyester Profits are Weak, and the Profit Situation is Still under Pressure in the Demand Downturn Stage: The processing fees of various polyester products are affected by capacity growth, supply - demand contradictions, and seasonal demand changes. In the third quarter, the profit situation of major polyester products was not ideal. In the fourth quarter, the demand of the industry chain will face the pressure of weakening again, and it is difficult for the production profits of filament and other products to continue to improve [83][85]. - The Inventory Pressure of Filament is Not High, and There is a Downward Pressure on Bottle - Chip Exports: In 2025, the exports of major polyester products such as filament, bottle chips, and short fiber increased year - on - year, with bottle chips and short fiber having higher export growth rates. The export volume of bottle chips increased the most in absolute terms. However, in the fourth quarter, the domestic demand for bottle chips is in the traditional off - season, and exports are expected to decline month - on - month, and the trend of bottle - chip processing fees is still not optimistic. The filament inventory fluctuated greatly this year, and there is still inventory accumulation pressure in October - November. The short - fiber inventory has generally shown a downward trend since mid - February, and the inventory accumulation pressure in the fourth quarter is not large [91][93][97]. - The Seasonal Change in Demand Weakens, and the Off - Season May Not Be Off: Filament and short fiber in polyester products are greatly affected by the off - peak seasons of textile raw material demand. From August to September, the operating rates of filament and short fiber did not increase significantly, showing the characteristics of a peak season that is not peak. In October, demand will turn weak, and there may be a situation where the off - season is not off. The operating rates of pure polyester yarn and Jiangsu - Zhejiang looms can reflect the demand changes of short fiber and filament. The operating rate of looms increased to near the highest level this year as of September 26, but it will decline again in late October. The production of yarn and grey cloth is still weak this year, and there is inventory accumulation pressure in October - November [102][104][107]. 5. Domestic Demand for Textile and Apparel will Gradually Improve, but Exports are under Downward Pressure - Domestic Demand for Textile and Apparel Enters the Peak Season, but the Overall Performance is Not Ideal: In 2025, China's total retail sales of consumer goods increased, but the year - on - year growth rate gradually declined from June to August, and the recovery of domestic consumption was unstable. In August 2025, the domestic retail sales of textile and apparel increased year - on - year, but the growth rate was lower than that of the overall retail market from June to July. Domestic textile and apparel consumption shows obvious seasonal fluctuations, and the peak season is mainly in the second half of the year. It is necessary to pay attention to the domestic textile and apparel consumption in the fourth quarter [108][113]. - Textile and Apparel Exports are under Downward Pressure, and the Decline in Apparel Exports is More Obvious: From January to August 2025, China's cumulative export amount increased year - on - year. However, the US tariff policy adjustment is still increasing, and the Sino - US trade environment is difficult to improve substantially. From January to August 2025, China's cumulative export of textile and apparel decreased slightly year - on - year, with textile exports increasing and apparel exports decreasing. In July - August, China's apparel exports decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year, and the peak export volume this year occurred in June instead of August as in previous years [114][115][117]. 6. Summary and Outlook - Summary: In the third quarter, OPEC+ decided to increase crude oil production at monthly meetings, and EIA continuously raised the global crude oil production forecasts for 2025 and 2026, with the supply surplus scale expanding. International crude oil prices oscillated downward during the peak consumption season in the third quarter, with a small cumulative decline. The prices of the polyester industry chain generally followed crude oil, and the overall performance was weaker than that of crude oil. The profits of the industry chain were still not ideal, with the profits of PX, PTA, and ethylene glycol declining significantly in the third quarter, and the profits of filament, short fiber, and bottle chips rebounding from a low level but still remaining low [118]. - Outlook: In the fourth quarter, the international crude oil market will face a transformation where demand first drops rapidly and then rebounds. Under the expectation of supply surplus, the market may be more sensitive to the decline in demand. If OPEC+ continues the policy of continuous production increase, the international crude oil supply surplus situation will further intensify. The Fed is expected to continue to cut interest rates in the fourth quarter, but the effect of interest - rate cuts on boosting the expectation of crude oil demand is limited. In the polyester industry chain, the demand will be generally weak in the fourth quarter, especially in October when it enters the off - season of textile raw material demand, and there may be a situation where the off - season is not off. Due to the low profits across the entire industry chain, supply is also expected to decline when demand falls. In October, both crude oil and the polyester industry chain demand are expected to weaken, and the prices of industry - chain products will face downward pressure, but it is expected that the supply side will also make adjustments, entering a state of double - reduction in supply and demand. In December, as crude oil demand gradually recovers, the downward pressure on oil prices will ease, and the prices of the polyester industry chain are expected to rebound, showing a trend of being low at first and then high in the fourth quarter. In terms of industry - chain profits, the profits of mid - upstream products PX, PTA, and ethylene glycol declined in the third quarter. In the fourth quarter, industry - chain profits are expected to shift from downstream to mid - upstream products [119][120].
聚酯产业链四季度报告：成本和需求季节性波动，价格或前低后高
Guo Lian Qi Huo·2025-09-29 07:02