OPEC+或于十月继续增产，原油维持震荡

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The crude oil market will continue its oscillatory pattern with limited upside potential. Supply-side factors are mixed, with OPEC+ production increase expectations and Iraq's export recovery pressuring prices, while Ukraine's attacks on Russian energy facilities and Russia's fuel export restrictions provide geopolitical premium support. Demand lacks significant incremental drivers, and the withdrawal of speculative funds may limit upward flexibility. If OPEC+ unexpectedly expands the production increase scale, it may trigger an oil price correction, but geopolitical risks still provide support at the lower end [5]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary - Futures Market Data Changes: On September 26, 2025, the SC main contract rose slightly by 0.14% to 491.3 yuan/barrel, WTI fell slightly by 0.05% to 65.19 dollars/barrel, and Brent rose slightly by 0.03% to 68.82 dollars/barrel. In terms of spreads, the SC - Brent spread narrowed slightly by 0.01 dollars to 0.04 dollars/barrel, the SC - WTI spread strengthened by 0.04 dollars to 3.67 dollars/barrel, and the Brent - WTI spread widened by 0.05 dollars to 3.63 dollars/barrel. The SC continuous - consecutive 3 spread further weakened by 0.8 yuan to -4.3 yuan/barrel, indicating pressure on near - month contracts [2]. - Position and Trading Volume: As of the week of September 23, Brent crude oil speculative net long positions decreased by 11,592 lots to 220,579 lots, and diesel net long positions decreased by 3,817 lots to 114,507 lots, showing increasing caution in the market towards the energy product outlook [2]. 2. Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes in the Industrial Chain - Supply Side: OPEC+ may approve a production increase of at least 13.7 barrels per day at the October 5 meeting. Coupled with the resumption of oil exports from the Kurdish region in Iraq, the future crude oil supply is expected to increase marginally. However, Ukraine's attacks on Russia's Chuvash oil pumping station and refineries may increase the uncertainty of Russian crude oil exports. China's newly discovered shale oil reserves of 1.58 billion tons have limited short - term impact on global supply [3]. - Demand Side: Slovakia clearly refused to stop importing Russian oil, indicating that some European countries still rely on Russian oil, supporting demand resilience. However, the continuous reduction of diesel speculative net long positions implies a weakening expectation of refined oil demand. The US pressure on Turkey to stop buying Russian oil may disrupt local trade flows, but the actual impact needs to be observed [3]. - Inventory Side: The EIA inventory report for the week of September 19 showed that the US oil market was in a tight supply - demand balance. Crude oil inventory decreased by 607,000 barrels to 414.8 million barrels, reversing the market's expected increase of 235,000 barrels and reaching the lowest level since January. Gasoline inventory decreased by 1.1 million barrels to 216.6 million barrels, the lowest since the end of November last year; distillate inventory decreased by 1.7 million barrels to 123 million barrels, far exceeding the expected decrease of 494,000 barrels. Cushing inventory increased slightly by 177,000 barrels to 23.7 million barrels, the first increase in September but still at the lowest level during the same period since 2018 [4]. 3. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - Crude Oil: On September 26, 2025, SC futures price rose slightly, WTI fell slightly, and Brent rose slightly. Among spot prices, Brent, Oman, Victory, ESPO, and Duri increased, while Dubai decreased. Spreads such as SC - WTI and Brent - WTI widened, while SC - Brent and SC continuous - consecutive 3 narrowed. Other assets like the US dollar index decreased, while the S&P 500 and DAX index increased [7]. - Fuel Oil: On September 26, 2025, the prices of FU and LU futures increased, while NYMEX fuel oil decreased. Among spot prices, some products such as marine 180CST and 380CST in Singapore increased, while most others remained unchanged. Spreads such as Singapore high - low sulfur spread and China high - low sulfur spread decreased [8]. 4. Industry Dynamics and Interpretations - Supply: OPEC+ may approve a production increase of at least 13.7 barrels per day at the October 5 meeting. Iraq resumed oil exports from the Kurdistan region, and its production and export levels will remain within the OPEC - set quota. China's Daqing Gulong continental shale oil demonstration area added 1.58 billion tons of proven shale oil reserves [9][10][11]. - Demand: The EU appealed the dispute panel report on Indonesia's biodiesel import tariffs. Ukraine's military attacked a Russian refinery [12]. - Inventory: Information mainly focuses on the closing prices and changes of financial products such as gold, silver, and crude oil futures contracts [13]. - Market Information: At the opening on Monday, spot gold opened slightly lower, and WTI crude oil opened 0.24% lower. Speculative net long positions of diesel and Brent crude oil decreased. The US pressured Turkey to stop buying Russian oil [14][15]. 5. Industrial Chain Data Charts - A series of charts are provided, including the prices and spreads of WTI, Brent, and SC, US crude oil production, rig numbers, refinery operating rates, crude oil processing volumes, commercial and strategic crude oil inventories, fuel oil prices, spreads, and inventories [16][18][20].