纯苯、苯乙烯日报：纯苯远期累库难改，苯乙烯供需错配加剧-20250929

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The mismatch between supply and demand of pure benzene continues. Without obvious macro - positive support, the price will mainly fluctuate weakly. The supply - demand contradiction of styrene may intensify in October, and the high inventory and the drag of upstream pure benzene limit its upward space. Its short - term trend still fluctuates more with oil [2][3] Summary by Directory 1. Daily Market Summary (1) Fundamental Information - Price: On September 26, the main contract of styrene closed down 0.13% at 6,949 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 34 (- 17 tons); the main contract of pure benzene closed down 0.32% at 5,903 yuan/ton [2] - Cost: On September 26, Brent crude oil closed at $65.0/barrel (+$0/barrel), WTI crude oil closed at $68.6/barrel (+$0.1/barrel), and the spot price of pure benzene in East China was 5,870 yuan/ton (- 15 yuan/ton) [2] - Inventory: Styrene inventory was 18.7 tons (+2.8 tons), a month - on - month increase of 17.3%, turning to inventory accumulation. The port inventory of pure benzene was 10.7 tons (- 2.7 tons), a month - on - month decrease of 20.1% [2] - Supply: Some styrene plants have started maintenance, and the production and supply have decreased as expected. Currently, the weekly output of styrene is 34.6 tons (- 0.1 tons), and the plant capacity utilization rate is 73.2% (- 0.2%) [2] - Demand: The capacity utilization rates of downstream 3S vary. The capacity utilization rate of EPS is 55.2% (- 6.49%), ABS is 70% (+0.2%), and PS is 59.1% (- 2.1%) [2] (2) Views - Pure Benzene: Supply is expected to be relatively loose in the fourth quarter. Although the downstream demand has slightly improved, the terminal peak season has not arrived, and it is difficult to digest the high supply. The long - term inventory accumulation pattern is difficult to change, and the price will mainly fluctuate weakly [2] - Styrene: Supply will tighten in September and increase significantly in October. There will be a short - term decrease in demand during the National Day, and the mismatch between upstream and downstream production will intensify the supply - demand contradiction in October. The inventory pressure is high, and the cost support is limited. The short - term trend fluctuates with oil [3] 2. Industrial Chain Data Monitoring (1) Price Data - Styrene futures main contract decreased by 0.13% to 6,949 yuan/ton; pure benzene futures main contract decreased by 0.32% to 5,903 yuan/ton. There are also changes in other prices such as spot prices and international prices [5] (2) Output and Inventory Data - The output of styrene in China decreased by 0.27% to 34.6 tons, and the output of pure benzene increased by 1.18% to 45.5 tons. Styrene port inventory increased by 17.3% to 18.7 tons, and pure benzene port inventory decreased by 20.15% to 10.7 tons [6] (3) Capacity Utilization Data - The capacity utilization rates of some pure benzene downstream products such as styrene decreased by 0.2%, while those of others such as caprolactam increased. The capacity utilization rates of some styrene downstream products such as EPS decreased, while that of ABS increased slightly [7] 3. Industry News - The US imposes high tariffs on some Asian chemical products, leading to global petrochemical industry structure adjustment. The overall loss of China's refining and chemical industry in the first half of 2025 has intensified. China's pure benzene production capacity has formed a pattern with East China as the core [8] 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report provides charts on pure benzene price, styrene price, styrene - pure benzene price difference, inventory, and capacity utilization rate, etc. [9][14][19]