银河期货铜10月报-20250929

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut has increased, and copper prices are consolidating at a high level. Supply - side disturbances have increased, and the center of copper prices has shifted upward. The copper smelting industry's "anti - involution" is expected to unfold, with bullish sentiment fermenting. Although downstream demand for high prices is insufficient and demand is marginally weakening, it will not collapse. The Grasberg accident has strengthened the bullish trend, and prices are expected to continue to be strong [3][4][6] - The global copper market is facing a situation where supply is difficult to ease and demand is showing a differentiated trend. The growth rate of supply and demand has declined compared to last year. It is expected that the global copper market will have a certain amount of surplus in 2025 [123][131] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. Copper Market Overview (1) Market Review - In September, copper prices broke through the pressure level of $10,160/ton. On September 8, the lowest price of Shanghai copper reached 79,400 yuan/ton, or LME copper at $9,860/ton. On September 26, it reached a maximum of 83,090 yuan/ton, or LME copper at $10,485/ton. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September, but there were differences among policymakers regarding further rate cuts, and the dovish stance was less than expected. The Grasberg accident led to a 35% decline in the 2026 output forecast, intensifying the tightness of copper mines. The downstream demand for high - priced copper was insufficient, and the destocking speed was slow [11] (2) Market Outlook - In terms of supply, it is expected that the global copper concentrate increment in 2025 will be adjusted down to 200,000 metal tons, with a year - on - year growth of 0.87%. The growth rate of refined copper production is expected to be 3.53%, lower than 4.3% in 2024. In terms of demand, the global consumption growth rate is expected to drop to 3.4%, with China's consumption growth rate falling from 4.5% to 3.8% and overseas demand growth rate rising from 1.8% to 2.7%. In terms of price, the long - term preventive interest rate cuts in the US are expected to drive up inflation, and copper prices are expected to mainly operate in the range of 81,000 - 85,000 yuan/ton [12] (3) Strategy Recommendation - Unilateral: Purchase on dips. Arbitrage: Hold long - short positions across markets. Options: Wait and see [7] 2. Increasing Disturbances in Copper Mines, Difficult to Ease the Tight Supply Situation (1) Sharp Decline in the Increment of Copper Concentrate Supply - It is expected that the global copper concentrate increment in 2025 will be about 200,000 tons, with a year - on - year growth of 0.87%, lower than the increment of 665,500 tons in 2024. Many major mining companies have reduced their production plans, such as Freeport, Ivanhoe, Teck, etc., with a total reduction of 239,000 tons. However, the output of Kazakhmys is expected to increase from 520,000 tons to 600,000 tons [28][29] (2) Mismatch in Global Scrap Copper Supply, Tight Domestic Scrap Copper Supply - In August 2025, China's scrap copper imports reached 179,400 physical tons, with a year - on - year increase of 5.93%. The cumulative import from January to August was 1.5148 million physical tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 0.12%. The import from the US has decreased, but it is imported through countries like Japan and Thailand. The EU is facing a reduction in scrap supply, and it is expected that the import of scrap copper from EU countries will decrease in the future [41] (3) Accelerated Transmission of Insufficient Raw Material Supply to the Smelting End - It is expected that the global refined copper production will increase by 950,000 tons in 2025, with a year - on - year growth of 3.53%. Overseas smelters are facing losses and increasing production cuts, such as Pasar, Altonorte, etc. In China, in August, the electrolytic copper production was 1.1715 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.24%. The domestic raw material supply is supplemented by the inflow of overseas long - term contracts and increased scrap copper procurement [48][50] 3. Consumption Analysis (1) Domestic Demand Differentiation - Real Estate Market: From January to August, the national new commercial housing sales area decreased by 4.7% year - on - year. The real estate market is in the off - season, and the decline in construction completion will continue to drag down copper consumption [60] - Power Grid and Power Supply Projects: From January to July, the cumulative investment in the power grid was 331.5 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 12.5%. The investment in power supply projects increased by 3.4%. In August, the operating rate of wire and cable improved month - on - month but decreased year - on - year. The export of wire and cable maintained growth, but the export to the US decreased due to tariff increases [68][70] - Household Air - Conditioners: From January to August, the cumulative sales of household air - conditioners were 152.57 million units, a year - on - year increase of 6.91%. In August, the total sales were 13.023 million units, a slight year - on - year decline. The consumption growth rate of air - conditioners is expected to drop to 5%, and the copper consumption will increase from 1.57 million tons to 1.65 million tons [78][79] - Automobiles: In August, automobile production and sales increased month - on - month and year - on - year. However, due to the structural differentiation of the automobile market and the impact of subsidy policies, the growth rate of automobile consumption is expected to gradually slow down [87] (2) The Marginal Weakening of the Driving Force of New Energy on Global Consumption - New Energy Vehicles: From January to July 2025, the global new energy vehicle sales increased by 24.57% year - on - year. China led the market, with production and sales from January to August increasing by 37.3% and 36.7% respectively. The global new energy vehicle copper consumption is expected to increase from 1.2208 million tons in 2024 to 1.3524 million tons in 2025 [93][94] - Wind and Solar Power Generation: From January to July 2025, China's new photovoltaic installed capacity increased by 80.73% year - on - year, and the new wind power installed capacity increased by 79.44% year - on - year. The global new wind power installed capacity is expected to increase to 138GW in 2025. The contribution of wind and solar power to global consumption growth is declining [105][117] (3) Consumption Summary - It is expected that the global consumption growth rate will drop to 3.4%, lower than 3.76% last year. China's consumption growth rate will drop from 4.5% to 3.8%. Overseas demand remains stable, while domestic demand is marginally weakening in the second half of the year [123] 4. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - In 2025, the supply gap of copper concentrate is expected to widen to 943,000 tons, and the refined copper surplus is expected to be 377,000 tons, concentrated in the US. In China, the consumption growth rate is expected to decline significantly from October to December [131]