PPI改善动能放缓与出口压力下的经济韧性

Economic Performance - The PPI growth rate is expected to continue to rise slightly in the short term, but the momentum for recovery is slowing down, with an anticipated year-end PPI growth rate unlikely to exceed -2%[2][40] - In September, the average daily transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities increased by 11.39% compared to August, with a year-on-year growth of 10.91%[11][12] Industrial Demand and Supply - The rebar production rate decreased to an average of 42.21% in September, down 1.65 percentage points from August, indicating a slowdown in industrial demand[17][18] - The average price of rebar fell by 1.88% year-on-year, while inventory levels rose by 7.59% compared to August, suggesting a supply-demand imbalance[18] Export and Trade - Exports are expected to face marginal pressure, particularly due to the impact of U.S. tariff policies, with a notable "rush to export" behavior observed in the first half of the year[3][40] - From January to August 2025, Xinjiang's total foreign trade value reached 356.31 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.4%[3][40] Consumer Behavior - The inbound tourism sector is showing robust growth, with tax refund sales increasing by 97.5% year-on-year in the first eight months of the year, indicating a conversion of inbound flow into consumer spending[27][41] - The average daily subway ridership in major cities increased by 1.98% year-on-year, reflecting sustained consumer activity despite a slight month-on-month decline[23][24] Risks and Challenges - Potential risks include escalating geopolitical conflicts and the possibility that policy effects may not meet expectations[4]