南华期货早评-20250929

Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The current economic cycle is showing marginal improvement, but there is still economic pressure in the future, and policy support is necessary. The Fed's future policy path will depend on employment market robustness and inflation decline rhythm. The market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in October has decreased marginally [2]. - The exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB is expected to fluctuate within the range of 7.09 - 7.15 this week. Export enterprises can lock in forward exchange settlement in batches at the upper edge of the exchange - rate range, and import enterprises can adopt a rolling foreign exchange purchase strategy at the 7.10 mark [5]. - The stock index is expected to fluctuate frequently and continue to oscillate during the holiday. Treasury bond investors can close long positions before the holiday [7][8]. - The container shipping futures price is likely to continue to oscillate or oscillate downward in the short term. The 12 - contract can continue to focus on low - buying opportunities, and generally, it is advisable to wait and see or conduct intraday short - selling [11]. - Precious metals are expected to be bullish in the medium - to - long term and may continue to rise in the short term. It is recommended to hold existing long positions lightly during the National Day holiday [15]. - The price of copper has risen due to the suspension of the Grasberg copper mine, and it is expected to decline slightly, with the weekly price range at 81,200 - 82,800 yuan per ton [16][17]. - Aluminum is expected to oscillate strongly; alumina is expected to operate weakly; cast aluminum alloy is expected to oscillate strongly; zinc is expected to operate weakly; nickel and stainless steel are expected to oscillate; tin is expected to oscillate; lithium carbonate is expected to oscillate between 70,000 - 75,000 yuan per ton before the National Day; lead is expected to oscillate at a high level [21][25][28][29]. - The steel market is expected to oscillate weakly, and the iron ore price may decline in the short term; coking coal and coke are expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation; ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are supported by cost but face large supply pressure [30][31][35][38]. - The oil price has rebounded in the short term due to geopolitical factors, but the medium - to - long - term fundamental trend is weak. PX - TA has rebounded at a low price, and it is advisable to consider cautious long - position attempts; MEG is expected to oscillate between 4150 - 4350, and it is not recommended to operate methanol before the National Day; PP may have a rebound drive, and PE is expected to oscillate weakly; PVC is recommended to wait and see; pure benzene and styrene are recommended to wait and see, and it is advisable to consider widening the price difference between them; fuel oil is recommended to wait and see; low - sulfur fuel oil has limited upward drive; asphalt can try long - position allocation after the oil price stabilizes; rubber and 20 - number rubber are expected to oscillate weakly, and it is recommended to wait and see during the holiday; urea is expected to oscillate between 1650 - 1850 [42][46][48][52][54][57][58][60][61][63][67][69]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial Futures - Macro: The supply - and - demand - side policies are being gradually advanced. The demand - side focuses on "benefiting people's livelihood and promoting consumption", and there may be incremental policies in the future. The "anti - involution" policy on the supply - side is being refined and implemented. The Fed may restart the rate - cut cycle in September, but the uncertainty of the rate - cut path has increased [1][2]. - RMB Exchange Rate: The RMB against the US dollar is expected to oscillate between 7.09 - 7.15 this week. Export enterprises can lock in forward exchange settlement in batches at the upper edge of the exchange - rate range, and import enterprises can adopt a rolling foreign exchange purchase strategy at the 7.10 mark [5]. - Stock Index: The stock index is expected to fluctuate frequently and continue to oscillate during the holiday due to the approaching holiday and the increase in risk - aversion sentiment [7]. - Treasury Bond: The Treasury bond market is currently weak. It is recommended to close long positions before the holiday [8]. - Container Shipping: The container shipping futures price is likely to continue to oscillate or oscillate downward in the short term. The 12 - contract can continue to focus on low - buying opportunities, and generally, it is advisable to wait and see or conduct intraday short - selling [11]. 3.2 Commodities 3.2.1 Non - ferrous Metals - Gold & Silver: The precious metals market has continued to rise strongly, and it is expected to be bullish in the medium - to - long term and may continue to rise in the short term. It is recommended to hold existing long positions lightly during the National Day holiday [13][15]. - Copper: The suspension of the Grasberg copper mine has pushed up the copper price. It is expected to decline slightly, with the weekly price range at 81,200 - 82,800 yuan per ton [16][17]. - Aluminum & Its Industry Chain: Aluminum is expected to oscillate strongly; alumina is expected to operate weakly; cast aluminum alloy is expected to oscillate strongly [20][21]. - Zinc: Zinc is expected to operate weakly due to the increased uncertainty of rate cuts and the suppression of the US dollar index [22]. - Nickel & Stainless Steel: The nickel and stainless - steel market is expected to oscillate. The nickel market is affected by factors such as mine - end sentiment and new - energy support, and the stainless - steel market is affected by factors such as inventory and profit [24]. - Tin: Tin is expected to oscillate, and the macro impact on tin prices has decreased, with the supply being tight in the short term [25]. - Lithium Carbonate: Lithium carbonate is expected to oscillate between 70,000 - 75,000 yuan per ton before the National Day. The downstream lithium - battery material demand is expected to increase, which may support the lithium - carbonate futures price [28]. - Lead: Lead is expected to oscillate at a high level. The supply side may recover, and the demand side is generally stable, but the long - term demand is average [29]. 3.2.2 Black Metals - Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil: The steel market is expected to oscillate weakly. The supply - and - demand are both increasing, but the inventory reduction is less than in previous years. High - supply pressure remains, and the cost support is weakening [30]. - Iron Ore: The short - term macro利好 has been exhausted, and the iron ore price may decline, but the downward space may be limited [31][33]. - Coking Coal & Coke: Coking coal is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation, and coke follows coking coal. The "anti - involution" is the trading main line in the second half of the year [35]. - Ferrosilicon & Ferromanganese: Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are supported by cost but face large supply pressure. The cost support and term structure have improved, but the supply is high and the demand is weak [38]. 3.2.3 Energy & Chemicals - Crude Oil: The oil price has rebounded in the short term due to geopolitical factors, but the medium - to - long - term fundamental trend is weak. It is necessary to pay attention to the pre - holiday trend [42]. - PTA - PX: PX - TA has rebounded at a low price. It is advisable to consider cautious long - position attempts or widen the TA - SC price difference. The polyester peak season has limited height [46]. - MEG - Bottle Chip: MEG is expected to oscillate between 4150 - 4350. The demand has improved marginally, but the long - term accumulation expectation is difficult to change [48]. - Methanol: It is not recommended to operate methanol before the National Day. The coal price has weakened slightly, and the port inventory is difficult to solve [49]. - PP: PP may have a rebound drive due to the reduction of marginal supply. It is not advisable to chase short positions at present [52]. - PE: PE is expected to oscillate weakly. The supply is increasing, and the demand is recovering slowly, with inventory pressure [54]. - PVC: PVC is recommended to wait and see. The market is in a pattern of weak reality and strong policy disturbance [57]. - Pure Benzene & Styrene: Pure benzene and styrene are recommended to wait and see, and it is advisable to consider widening the price difference between them. The supply of pure benzene is high, and the upward space of styrene is limited [58]. - Fuel Oil: Fuel oil is recommended to wait and see. The export has decreased, and the cracking upward drive is limited [60]. - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: Low - sulfur fuel oil has limited upward drive. The supply has decreased, and the demand is weak [61]. - Asphalt: Asphalt can try long - position allocation after the oil price stabilizes. The supply is increasing, and the demand has not been effectively released, but the inventory structure has improved [63]. - Rubber & 20 - Number Rubber: Rubber and 20 - number rubber are expected to oscillate weakly, and it is recommended to wait and see during the holiday. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand has high - level resilience but also faces challenges [67]. - Urea: Urea is expected to oscillate between 1650 - 1850. The domestic supply - and - demand pattern is weak, but the second - batch export may support the demand [69].