银河期货纯碱玻璃周报-20250929

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For soda ash, near October, with macro uncertainties and holiday stock - up, prices are expected to be stable and strong before the holiday. For trading strategies, it's suggested to hold a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage and options, and expect a stable - to - strong price trend for the single - side trade [16] - For glass, it's expected to show an oscillating trend before the holiday. The single - side trade may see price oscillations, and it's recommended to hold a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage and options. There's also a suggestion of a long - glass and short - soda - ash strategy [25] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. Core Logic Analysis 1.1 Soda Ash Supply - This week's soda ash production was 74.6 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.5 tons (-2%). Both heavy and light soda decreased. The daily production was 10.6 - 10.8 tons. Supply decreased due to equipment maintenance in some companies and increased with the recovery of others. Boyuan Phase II was ignited on Friday. Juhua has a maintenance plan in October. Seasonal maintenance is rare, and supply is at a high level. Some manufacturers raised prices this week. The cost increased slightly due to rising coal prices. The theoretical profits of both the soda - ammonia method and the combined - alkali method decreased [8] 1.2 Soda Ash Demand - This week's apparent demand for soda ash was 78.8 tons, a 0.2% week - on - week increase. Heavy - soda demand decreased by 2.8%, and light - soda demand increased by 4.6%. Float glass and photovoltaic glass production were stable, and a 1200 - ton photovoltaic glass production line is planned to be ignited next week. To avoid macro uncertainties, middle and downstream enterprises stocked up before the holiday, with a shipment rate of over 100% in all regions, and upstream inventory decreased. The spot price in some areas increased, and the term - week shipment was poor [11] 1.3 Soda Ash Inventory - Upstream inventory decreased, with the factory inventory at 175.6 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.2 tons. Social inventory increased by 10.7% to 61.5 tons. The inventory of float - glass enterprises increased, with 33% of sample factories having 21.48 days of inventory, a 5.1% week - on - week increase [15] 1.4 Soda Ash Market Outlook - Market performance was weak this week, first rising and then falling. Before the holiday, prices are expected to be stable and strong due to holiday stock - up and macro uncertainties. For trading strategies, it's suggested to hold a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage and options, and expect a stable - to - strong price trend for the single - side trade [16] 2.1 Glass Supply - Float - glass daily production was 16 tons, stable, with 225 production lines. The weekly average profits of float - glass using different fuels changed. The supply side is not in the centralized cold - repair area, and enterprises are in a wait - and - see state [19] 2.2 Glass Demand - In the Shahe market, demand was weak at the beginning of the week and then strengthened. In the Central China market, some middle - link enterprises stocked up, and most enterprises raised prices. The average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises increased by 7.8% week - on - week and 8.3% year - on - year. The operating rate of China's LOW - E glass sample enterprises increased by 1% week - on - week [22] 2.3 Glass Market Outlook - Anti - involution sentiment continued, and some manufacturers in Central and North China raised prices, leading to increased purchasing by middle and downstream enterprises. The real - estate completion data showed a marginal improvement. The overall inventory decreased by 1.1% week - on - week. Before the holiday, prices are expected to oscillate. For trading strategies, it's suggested to hold a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage and options, and expect price oscillations for the single - side trade [25] 2. Weekly Data Tracking Soda Ash Futures and Spot Prices - Heavy - soda spot prices in some regions were stable, while in others, they increased slightly. Futures prices of different contracts also changed, and the basis and spreads between contracts showed various trends [28] Soda Ash Supply Data - Production, operating rates (by process and region), and equipment - maintenance situations were presented. Production decreased week - on - week, and operating rates in some regions and processes changed [64] Soda Ash Profit Data - The costs and profits of different production methods (ammonia - alkali and combined - alkali) changed week - on - week and year - on - year. Glass profits using different fuels also had corresponding changes [85] Soda Ash Inventory Data - Factory inventory decreased week - on - week, and inventory in different regions showed different trends. The average available days of inventory also decreased [93] Soda Ash Import and Export Data - Monthly import and export volumes and their year - on - year and month - on - month changes were presented, as well as import and export data by region [103] Soda Ash Demand Data - Apparent demand, heavy - and light - soda demand, and enterprise backlog days were shown [127] Glass Futures and Spot Prices - Spot prices of glass in different regions changed, and futures prices of different contracts increased. The basis and spreads between contracts also showed various trends [130] Glass Supply Data - Float - glass daily melting volume, operating rate, production - line changes, and loss volume were presented. Production was stable, and some production lines had cold - repair or ignition operations [138] Glass Profit Data - The profits of float - glass using different fuels changed week - on - week and month - on - month [148] Glass Inventory Data - Overall inventory, inventory in Shahe and Hubei, and the average available days of inventory showed different trends [150] Glass Demand Data - Demand structure, apparent demand, production - sales ratio in different regions, glass - deep - processing production, and order days were presented. The production - sales ratio in some regions improved, and deep - processing orders increased [164]